Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Economic Growth and Bird Flu Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Networking longs and Retail longs. I added to my (IWM), (EEM) and (QQQQ) shorts today, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is heavy. Many of the same pundits and analysts that continuously make the case for ever higher commodity prices are the same ones inciting bird flu fears. I personally think the bird flu, which has only killed about 200 people globally (about the same amount that die nightly in Chinese coal mines), is just another symptom of the negativity bubble. However, if you do believe the bird flu is going to kill thousands or millions, I can't think of a more sure bet than to short commodities at current levels. Forget about the pie-in-the-sky small caps that may or may not benefit. A global pandemic would most surely be a demand-destroying event. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on lower energy prices, short-covering and bargain hunting.

No comments: