Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Bargain Hunting and Falling Energy Prices

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Networking longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are gaining and volume is about average. So far, the major averages are holding onto slight gains. However, I am seeing too many negatives to expect this bounce to gain substantial upside traction. Any sustainable rally can't be led by commodity stocks, in my opinion. I find it highly unlikely the Fed will cease raising rates with the 10-year yield approaching recent highs and oil above $70 per barrel. Finally, while breadth is OK today, a number of market-leading stocks are lower or barely rising. I plan to remain nimble, but a test of recent lows still looks likely. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as lower energy prices offset higher long-term rates.

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