Sunday, June 25, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Iraq’s Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki today presented a national reconciliation plan to parliament aimed at stemming insurgent and sectarian violence in which he offered amnesty to rebels who haven’t been involved in “terrorist” acts.
- The world’s central bankers, meeting in Basel, Switzerland, said their economies are strong enough to withstand a slump in equity markets caused by concern about higher interest rates.
- Warren Buffett, with an estimated personal wealth of $44 billion, will give away 85% of his fortune starting in July, most of it to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Fortune magazine said.
- Currency traders and analysts are growing less bearish on the US dollar after it climbed to an eight-week high.
- Arcelor SA backed a new takeover bid of about $33.7 billion from Mittal Steel, ending five months of opposition to the steel industry’s biggest-ever transaction.
- Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, may use oil as a weapon if the Islamic Republic’s interests come under attack, Oil Minister Vaziri-Hamaneh said.
- China’s economy will expand faster this year than in 2005 as investment and exports continue to grow, the central bank’s research bureau said.
- Moscow and Seoul leapfrogged Tokyo to become the world’s most expensive cities, a survey by Mercer Human Resource Consulting showed. New York was the highest-placed US city, rising three places to 10th.
- Commodity index funds have become the dominant players in the global commodities markets, according to Malcolm Southwood of Goldman Sachs JBWere. More than $90 billion is invested in these funds, which have been responsible for the leap in commodity prices over the past year. 74.2% of the $90 billion is invested in energy.

c/net News.com:
- Nanosolar is only a few years old, but it has laid plans to take on multinational corporations, such as BP Plc and Sharp, in the solar industry.

NY Times:
- Verizon Communications’(VZ) Airfone unit will stop providing on-board phone services to airlines later this year to focus on Internet, mobile phone and television services.
- North Korea’s possible pursuit of a long-range missile test may be an example of the Asian nation taking a page from Iran’s diplomatic strategy to use threats to gain concessions from the US.
- NetJets Inc., an operator of private jets owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway(BRK/A), has encountered difficulties, including increasing competition and pricing pressures.
- General George Casey Jr., the top US commander in Iraq, has put together a plan reducing the number of American troops in the country by the end of next year.
- Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), maker of Tylenol and Neutrogena, is close to an agreement to buy the consumer products-unit of Pfizer(PFE) for more than $16 billion.
- Iaqi school enrollment has grown each year since the US-led liberation, with 7.4% more students enrolled now than in 2002. Even in the war-torn Anbar province, high school enrollment has risen 37%.

Washington Post:
- Some Washington-area hospitals are expanding at record levels and adding amenities such as in-room Internet service, flat-screen TVs and plush furniture to attract patients in the quickly growing region.

Rocky Mountain News:
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) will use a new drilling method to increase natural-gas production at Colorado’s Piceance Development Project.

USA Today:
- US lottery-ticket sales are rising on the popularity of scratch tickets, including those that cost as much as $30 each.

Financial Times:
- Goldman Sachs(GS) has banned the use of “outperform” and “underperform” as part of its analysts’ stock recommendations. Goldman analysts must now use unambiguous “buy” and “sell” terms and set price targets for all the companies they cover.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) is planning to start its own private label credit card in China, becoming the first overseas retailer to do so.

Telegraph:
- Blackwood Distillers, a UK spirits company, plans to team up with New York hedge fund managers to trade whiskey futures.

Asahi Television:
- Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said keeping interest rates near zero is important as mild deflation persists in the world’s second-largest economy.

Ghana News Agency:
- Ghana will receive $544 million under the US government’s Millennium Challenge Account, citing Paa Kwesi Nduom, the African nation’s public sector minister. The Millennium Challenge Account was established by President Bush to speed development in poorer countries.

Iran News:
- China plans to help build a $1 billion aluminum plant in Iran’s North Khorasan province, citing an Iranian official.

AFP:
- Vendanta Resources Plc plans to almost triple production at its Zambian unit, Konkola Copper Mines, to 6 million metric tons a year.
- Iraq is producing more than 2.5 million barrels of oil a day, the highest since the government of Saddam Hussein was toppled in April 2003, citing oil minister Hussain Shahrittani. Iraq may increase its production to as much as 2.7 million barrels a day by the end of this year and to 4.3 million barrels a day by 2010, citing Shahristani.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (FNF), (GOOG), (JBLU), (GRMN) and (PLA).
- Had negative comments on (SLE), (AAPL), (KBH), (PHM), (MDC) and (BYD).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.02%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (LEN)/1.86
- (PHH)/1.40
- (SCS)/.14
- (WAG)/.38
- (HWAY)/.21

Upcoming Splits
- (FTO) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- New Home Sales for May are estimated to fall to 1150K versus 1198K in April.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly lower, weighed down by exporting shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rise into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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