Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Stocks Rebounding into Final Hour as Commodities Plunge

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail longs, Computer longs, Index ETF shorts, Energy-related shorts and Base Metal shorts. I took profits in some of my (QQQQ) and (IWM) shorts this morning and then added back to them, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are declining and volume is very heavy. Gold is now trading down the most since 1991, falling 5.8%, according Bloomberg. The metal is now down 22% from its high a few weeks ago. As I forecast a few weeks ago, I continue to believe inflation fears have peaked for the year. A significant change for the positive is now under way. The negativity bubble is poised to burst, but it has sucked in so many that few see what is happening, in my opinion. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower energy prices and bargain hunting.

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