- Advance Retail Sales for June fell .1% versus estimates of a .4% increase and a .1% gain in May.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for June rose .3% versus estimates of a .4% increase and an upwardly revised .7% gain in May.
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for July fell to 83.0 versus estimates of 85.6 and a reading of 84.9 in June.
- Business Inventories for May rose .8% versus estimates of a .4% gain and a .7% rise in April.
BOTTOM LINE: The cost of goods imported into the US rose in June by the smallest amount in three months as petroleum prices fell, Bloomberg said. I expect import prices to bounce higher in the near-term before decelerating meaningfully over the intermediate-term.
Sales at US retailers unexpectedly fell in June as consumers, Bloomberg reported. I expect retail sales to continue to decelerate to around average levels of 2.8% through year-end.
Confidence among US consumers unexpectedly weakened this month, reinforcing concern about a cooling economy, Bloomberg reported. The current conditions component of the index, which is a gauge of Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, fell to 100.8 from 105.0 the prior month. Consumers expect the inflation rate to rise 3.1% over the next year versus expectations of a 3.3% 12-month increase in June. Consumer confidence will likely remain around current levels in the near-term before rebounding in the fourth quarter.
Inventories at US companies rose more than forecast in May, reflecting the biggest jump in unsold automobiles since March 1999 as dealers struggled with lackluster demand, Bloomberg said. Inventories relative to sales matched an all-time low. Inventories at auto dealers rose 3.2%, the biggest increase since March 1999. Sales of autos fell 2.1%. Inventory rebuilding should held cushion decelerating demand.
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