Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Stocks Sharply Lower on Continuing Worries Over Economic Growth and Geopolitics

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Semi longs, Internet longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, every sector is falling and volume is about average. The major averages show little ability to stabilize this afternoon as they continue to grind lower. Considering the lack of real negative news today, this action is discouraging for the bulls. Volume, however, is only around average. Sentiment regarding future economic growth has become very negative. A recession is being priced in. I still see little evidence of anything other that a normal modest slowdown after booming economic activity. I suspect the fourth quarter will be a monster for US stocks as pessimistic scenarios fail to pan out once again. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain-hunting.

No comments: