Monday, October 16, 2006

Dow Jones Industrial Average Approaches 12,000, Making Another All-Time High

Indices
S&P 500 1,369.05 +.25%
DJIA 11,980.60 +.17%
NASDAQ 2,363.84 +.28%
Russell 2000 769.48 +.90%
Wilshire 5000 13,717.75 unch.
S&P Barra Growth 633.80 +.32%
S&P Barra Value 733.32 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 658.53 +.45%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 862.73 +.88%
Morgan Stanley Technology 555.53 +.13%
Transports 4,728.00 +1.51%
Utilities 436.68 +.35%
Put/Call .79 -5.95%
NYSE Arms 1.04 +16.25%
Volatility(VIX) 11.09 +3.16%
ISE Sentiment 162.00 +10.20%
US Dollar 87.0 -.14%
CRB 308.56 +1.70%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.94 unch.
Unleaded Gasoline 149.17 unch.
Natural Gas 6.44 unch.
Heating Oil 175.65 unch.
Gold 600.50 +.33%
Base Metals 242.34 +.43%
Copper 357.0 -.31%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.78% -.33%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.97%
Disk Drives +2.46%
Energy +2.18%

Lagging Sectors
Banks -.57%
Wireless -.82%
Telecom -1.13%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
CSFB:
- Rated (OKE) Outperform.
- Rated (NFG) Underperform.

Deutsche Bank:
- Rated (PNRA) Buy, target $81.
- Rated (YUM) Buy, target $66.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Guatemala led Venezuela after 10 rounds of voting for a Latin American seat on the UN Security Council, as the US lobbied to keep Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez from gaining influence on the panel.
- Attorney Lynne Stewart was sentenced to 28 months behind bars for helping an extremist Egyptian cleric pass messages from prison urging his followers on the outside to launch terrorist attacks.
- Fed Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said the chances of an interest-rate cut and an increase are about equal, without giving a time frame for a change.
- Roche Holding AG and InterMune(ITMN) agreed to collaborate on Hepatitis C drugs in an agreement worth as much as $530 million to InterMune.

Wall Street Journal:
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) has agreed to buy Trust-Mart, a Chinese hypermarket chain, for about $1 billion.

Financial Times:
- The European Union plans to introduce new regulations to encourage energy saving to cut the use of energy across the region by 20% by 2020.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Biotech longs, Retail longs and Semi longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Today's overall market action was bullish. Over the weekend, several major financial media outlets ran more stories on the probability of $100/bbl. oil. I sense there is tremendous complacency among energy bulls regarding recent losses. I have heard from several trusted sources that some very large funds that have taken significant hits from energy speculation over the last few months have dramatically raised their long bets on oil as it broke below $60/bbl. I continue to believe another significant move lower in oil is coming as this massive speculation unwinds further and many funds liquidate positions to meet year-end redemptions. I still expect oil to trade down to around $50 by year-end, which will likely lead to another large hedge fund blow-up. Oil is now entering its seasonally weak period.

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