Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour after New DJIA Intraday High

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs, Semi longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are lower and volume is about average. In my opinion, the recent sell-off in bonds, which I suspected may occur, is a result of many macro funds trimming their bets that the U.S. economy will experience a hard landing. I view this as a positive as inflation worries continue to diminish. I believe it would take a move in the 10-year yield to around 5.25% before the Fed would become concerned. I find this highly unlikely over the intermediate term. Global growth is still slowing despite a likely bounce back to around 3% in U.S. growth this quarter. I remain long a small portion of my original iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) position. I will look to add back to this long on any further substantial sell-off from current levels. Engadget is reporting that it is hearing from multiple trusted sources that Apple Computer (AAPL) will unveil a new wireless widescreen video iPod in the very near future. This would provide another catalyst for the stock to smash through its all-time high this quarter. Apple remains my second-largest long position behind Google (GOOG). I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels as short-covering, less pessimism, performance anxiety and lower energy prices more than offsets higher long-term rates.

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