Thursday, October 26, 2006

Stocks Surge on Heavy Volume as Energy Prices Fall, Profits Remain Strong and Long-term Rates Fall

Indices
S&P 500 1,389.08 +.50%
DJIA 12,163.66 +.24%
NASDAQ 2,379.10 +.96%
Russell 2000 776.02 +1.16%
Wilshire 5000 13,907.14 +1.02%
S&P Barra Growth 644.28 +.48%
S&P Barra Value 742.70 +.51%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 672.42 +.35%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 866.75 +.62%
Morgan Stanley Technology 554.82 +.66%
Transports 4,788.72 +.14%
Utilities 450.44 -.41%
Put/Call .78 -7.14%
NYSE Arms 1.14 +7.80%
Volatility(VIX) 10.56 -.94%
ISE Sentiment 166.0 +9.93%
US Dollar 85.89 -.57%
CRB 311.78 -.32%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.29 -1.81%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.70 -1.59%
Natural Gas 7.47 -2.85%
Heating Oil 169.85 -2.33%
Gold 599.90 +.02%
Base Metals 243.97 +.07%
Copper 339.50 -.15%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.72% -.97%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.44%
HMOs +2.17%
Retail +1.90%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -.52%
Steel -.68%
Drugs -.93%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Bank of America:
- Rate (PEIX) Sell, target $12.50

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks extended a weeklong rally, pushing the S&P 500 toward its best month since 2003 and sending the DJIA to another all-time high.
- Gasoline futures fell more than 2%, the biggest drop in three weeks, on speculation current inventories did not justify yesterday’s 3.6% rise.
- Crude oil fell over $1/bbl. on speculation that US inventories are adequate to meet demand in coming weeks.
- Microsoft(MSFT) said first quarter profit rose 11%, helped by higher revenue from server software.
- Shares of Home Inns & Hotels Management(HMIN), China’s second-largest budget hotel chain, surged 63% in their fist day of trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market today.

Nikkei English News:
- The NYSE proposed a financial and operational partnership with the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Medical longs, Retail longs and Biotech longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, most sectors rose and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Today's overall market action was very bullish. I especially liked the slow grind higher throughout the day rather than a sharp compressed move. As well, the NYSE Arms was at above-average levels again throughout the day. Tomorrow's GDP report and inflation reading will likely result in another move lower in long rates. Natural gas gave up all of this morning's gains and is now down about 2.7%. The recent surge in prices was related more to another bout of record speculation by investment funds than fundamental improvements. Natural gas storage is at all-time high levels heading into the commodity's seasonally weak period which begins over the next couple of weeks. I suspect natural gas has made another meaningful top.

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