Monday, December 17, 2012

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Fiscal Cliff Optimism, Short-Covering, Seasonality, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Today's Market Take:

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 16.85 -.88%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +22.2%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -17.98%
  • NYSE Arms .63 -34.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 92.41 -2.87%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 147.26 -3.14%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 110.41 bps unch.
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 209.33 bps +.29%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 -.25 bp
  • TED Spread 28.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.0 -.5 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 152.0 +4 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $132.20/Metric Tonne +2.24%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.40 -3.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +2 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +32 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my retail, tech, medical and biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

1 comment:

theyenguy said...

Chris Rossini in Economic Policy Journal relates Murray Rothbard also spoke frequently on the idea (of monetary inflation) “It is clear that prolonging the boom by ever larger doses of credit expansion will have only one result: to make the inevitably ensuing depression longer and more grueling. The way to prevent a depression, then, is simple: avoid starting a boom.”

In 1971, Milton Friedman, suggested the Banker Regime of floating currencies, which President Nixon embraced. The world abandoned a sound money system based upon the gold standard, carry trade loans were embraced, a global housing, sovereign and corporate debt trade emerged, America became a global economic and military empire, corporate profits soared, and global trade blossomed as fiat assets inflated in price on a global debt bubble.

But economic lightning struck in May of 2012, with the emergence of the Greek Debt Crisis, and now in December 2012, with the 10 30 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TNX:$TYX, is steepening, as evidenced by the Steepner ETF, STPP, rising, with the result that the debt bubble seen in the ETFs, BND, and AGG, trading lower, has burst.

Inflationism is turning to Destructionism; and with that there is a change in economic paradigms.

The Beast Regime of Regionalism and Totalitarian Collectivism is rising up out of Mediterranean PIGS nations, as the world is passing through Peak Credit, Peak Capital, Peak Money, and Peak Wealth. With the exception of Junk Bonds, JNK, Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, Senior Bank Loans, and Distressed Investments, FAGIX, Bonds, BND, are losing their seigniorage, that is their moneyness.

The Milton Friedman’s Banker Regime provided increasing prosperity for many based upon the choice of investments and use of credit. But the Mario Draghi's Beast Regime provides austerity and debt servitude for all of mankind based upon diktat. The WSJ writes ECB Chief Defends Austerity Measures.

The fiat money is dying on the exhaustion of neoliberal finance; and the diktat money system is rising based upon the mandates of regional leaders.

The word, will and way of regional sovereigns, who will rise to power based upon regional framework agreements, will provide seigniorage, that is moneyness.

The diktat money system features the diktat of authoritarians as credit, money, and wealth. Agence France Presse writes Italian President Giorgio Napolitano Urges Austerity As Election Looms.
TheEconomist relates Europe’s Worries About Italy. Italy’s latest mess has shocked European leaders. But their problems run even deeper.

The only money good will be the word of sovereign leaders and monetary popes, as well as the physical possession of gold either in bullion or in Internet trading vaults like Bullion Vault. The Street writes Gold A Long Term Winner As Currencies Collapse.

As fiat money starts to perish, diktat will increase in the world's ten regions. A ten toed kingdom of regional governance will rise worldwide where diktat serves as credit, money and wealth.

America is one of the two remaining iron kingdoms that has ruled the world since the late 1700s, the other was the UK. But soon, through Financial Armageddon, that is Financial Apocalypse, the global hegemony of the US will be greatly diminished. Out of the soon coming economic and political chaos, a European Super State ruled by a Sovereign and a Seignior, will rise to great world power, and be the example of Totalitarian Collectivism and Regional Governance world wide as the Beast Regime of Diktat comes to replace the Banker Regime of Choice, and occupies all of the world's ten zones, and seven institutions.