Monday, August 19, 2013

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, More Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Mideast Unrest, Homebuilding/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.01 +4.45%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.74 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.26 +6.43%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.61 +2.32%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +28.21%
  • Total Put/Call .89 -2.20%
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 +9.22% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.19 +2.02%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 145.61 +4.42%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 82.0 -.35%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 331.79 +4.20%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +.5 bp
  • TED Spread 22.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 +.25 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 252.0 +4 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $139.20/Metric Tonne +.94%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.10 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.10 +2.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 -3 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -158 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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