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Thursday, November 13, 2014

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:39 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Russia to Fly Bombers to U.S. Gulf as Ukraine Escalates. Russia plans to extend long-range bomber patrols as far as the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean, its defense minister said, as NATO accused Vladimir Putin’s government of sending more troops into Ukraine. With Ukraine warning its conflict is close to returning to open war, Russian Defense Minister SergeyShoigu said his country’s military will start conducting regular long-range bomber patrols along Russia’s borders and over the Arctic Ocean.
  • Abe Testing Water for Sales Tax Delay Boosts Risk: Japan Credit. Japan’s sovereign debt risk climbed as ruling party members started laying the groundwork for a possible delay in a sales tax increase. The cost to protect sovereign bonds against non-payment for five years has risen 16 basis points over the past two months to 48 basis points yesterday. Benchmark 10-year yields gained to the highest since September after Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration favors delaying the levy boost by 18 months and started preparing an election to win a mandate for the move.
  • Abe Poised to Gamble Political Future on Snap Election. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is poised to gamble his political future on a plan to call a snap election next month, halfway into his current term. “It’s always risky to dissolve the house when you’re the prime minister,” said Robert Dujarric, director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo. “Unless you win a crushing victory, you have nowhere to go but down.” Abe is likely to go the people on Dec. 14 after postponing an unpopular sales-tax increase slated for October 2015, according to people with knowledge of his plan, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak. 
  • China’s Leaders Said to Discuss Lowering 2015 Growth Target.
  • Singapore to Face Fire Sales With Home Curbs, Developer Says. Singapore’s housing market may face “fire sales” with mortgage defaults as the government’s property curbs hurt home sales and prices, the city-state’s second-biggest developer said. 
  • Tencent Quarterly Profit Misses Estimates as Growth Slows. Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700) reported third-quarter profit that missed analyst estimates after the Chinese Internet company’s revenue gained at the slowest pace since 2007 and development and staff costs increased.
  • China Small-Cap Stocks Fall as Investors Shift Funds Before Link. China’s small-company stocks slumped to the lowest level since August as investors shifted funds into large caps before the start of an exchange link with Hong Kong next week. Technology and health-care companies led declines. Beijing Originwater Technology Co., which has the third-largest weighting in the ChiNext Index, slumped 1.8 percent. Bluefocus Communication Group Co. plunged 4.7 percent. Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. and Jiangxi Copper Co. paced declines for coal and metal stocks before industrial production data today. Hong Yuan Securities Co. led a rally for financial shares. The ChiNext dropped 2 percent to 1,447.04 at 10:14 a.m., extending losses to 7.4 percent since reaching this year’s high on Oct. 9. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2 percent today.
  • Most Asian Stocks Gain; Oil, Gold Slide With Aussie. Most Asian stocks rose before data on Chinese industrial output and retail sales, while Australia’s dollar fell as a central bank official said it hasn’t ruled out intervention to weaken the currency. Brent crude oil extended its decline below $80 a barrel and gold dropped. About four stocks gained for every three that fell on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) by 11:41 a.m. in Tokyo. The Hang Seng Index fluctuated as Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700), China’s biggest online messaging operator, fell after missing earnings estimates.
  • Italians Say No to Risk as Slump Takes Toll on Startups. As a three-year long economic contraction shows little sign of ending, Italians are losing the impulse to take chances. The number of businesses created in the third quarter was the lowest on record for that period, while the rate of companies collapsing shows no signs of slowing down, reports show. That’s the fallout from a recession which has undermined confidence, making banks and venture capitalists reluctant to take risks. 
Wall Street Journal:
  • NATO Sees ‘Significant Buildup’ of Russian Forces in Ukraine. Large Convoys Reported to be Moving Into the Region. Russia is sending fresh convoys of troops and tanks into eastern Ukraine, NATO said, and threatening to dispatch warplanes on maneuvers over the Gulf of Mexico, flexing its military muscles in a Cold War-style escalation with the West.
  • U.S.-China Accord Was Months in Making. Blueprint Forged by Beijing, Washington Hinges on Avoiding Sensitive Topics Such as Human Rights. The display of cooperation during President Barack Obama’s visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping was the product of months of low-key meetings between midlevel bureaucrats who were tasked with setting up a new chapter in U.S.-China relations, according to senior U.S. and defense officials.
  • Obama Faces Obstacles to Emissions Deal With China. Other Nations, Republicans and Environmentalists Present Hurdles to President’s Plan. President Barack Obama’s plan to curb greenhouse-gas emissions alongside China sets the stage for lengthy confrontations with other nations resistant to making cuts, Republicans who want to roll back regulations and environmentalists pushing for bigger reductions.
  • It Wasn’t Just Obama. The Democrats’ policies have been pillaging their own political base.
  • Green Leap Forward. Obama trades higher U.S. energy costs now for distant Chinese promises. The climate-change campaign against fossil fuels has been having a hard time with democracy. Voters in the U.S. support fracking and the Keystone XL pipeline, Australia repealed its carbon tax, and frustration with green energy costs is rising across Europe. So perhaps it’s not surprising that President Obama has turned to a dictatorship for help with his anticarbon ambitions.
Fox News:
  • Source: Obama to announce 10-point immigration plan via exec action as early as next week. EXCLUSIVE: President Obama is planning to unveil a 10-part plan for overhauling U.S. immigration policy via executive action -- including suspending deportations for millions -- as early as next Friday, a source close to the White House told Fox News.
MarketWatch.com: 
  • 5 red flags raised by stock market’s record run.
CNBC:
  • JC Penney(JCP) revenue misses expectations. (video) J.C. Penney's third-quarter sales fell shy of analyst estimates on Wednesday, but its earnings per share loss was smaller than expected.
Zero Hedge:
  • More Humiliation: China Furious At "Disrespectful" Nicorette-Chewing Obama. (video)
  • SocGen Warns: "Now May Be The Time To Focus On The Short Side".
  • How The Government "Punished" Wall Street, Explained In 1 Cartoon.
  • Sentiment Is "Off The Charts" Bullish. (graph)
  • 24 Reasons Why Millennials Are Screaming Mad About America's "Unfair" Economy.
Business Insider:
  • China Is Finally Acting Like A Superpower — And Nobody Knows What's Going To Happen Next.
  • Cisco(CSCO CEO: Obama's Plan Will End High Speed Internet As We Know It.
  • The Ukraine 'Ceasefire' Is A Cynical And Deadly Sham.
  • Ukraine Redeploys Troops After Russians Pour Over The Border.
Reuters:
  • Global banks entering higher-stake phase of forex probes. The $4.3 billion in civil settlements struck Wednesday between six global banks and U.S. and U.K. authorities over foreign exchange market manipulation sets the stage for negotiations over related ongoing probes that could bear much more severe consequences.
  • Weak telecom spending, emerging markets weigh on Cisco(CSCO) forecast. Network equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc forecast current-quarter profit below analysts' average estimate, weighed down by capital budget cuts at telecom service providers and weak sales in emerging markets. Cisco's shares reversed course in extended trading following the forecast and fell 1 percent.
  • NetApp(NTAP) profit falls on lower sales to OEMs. Data storage equipment maker NetApp Inc reported a 4 percent fall in quarterly profit, hurt by lower sales to original equipment manufacturers, and forecast a third-quarter profit below market estimate. The company's shares were down about 3 percent in extended trading.
Telegraph:
  • Spreading deflation across East Asia threatens fresh debt crisis. Asia's currency skirmishes are happening in a region of festering grievances and territorial disputes, with no Nato-style security structure to dampen down fires.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.5 +.25 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.33%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (VIAB)/1.68
  • (WMT)/1.12
  • (KSS)/.74
  • (AMAT)/.27
  • (JWN)/.71
  • (RMAX)/.40
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 280K versus 278K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2347K versus 2348K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for September are estimated to fall to 4800 versus 4835 in August.
11:00 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +744,440 barrels versus a +460,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +60,000 barrels versus a -1,378,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,450,000 barrels versus a -724,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.8% gain the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, Chinese Industrial Production/Retail Sales/Fixed Assets data, $16B 30Y T-Bond auction, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for November, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, UBS Building/Building Products Conference, (BBRY) investor day, (FLR) investor day, (UPS) investor conference, (PG) analyst day and the (FFIV) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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