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Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:51 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Abe Sales Tax Backfiring With More Debt Not Less: Japan Credit. What started as a plan to reduce Japan’s debt is turning into a reason to issue more bonds. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration implemented a higher sales tax in April to boost revenue as government liabilities ballooned to 1 quadrillion yen ($8.5 trillion), more than double the nation’s yearly economic output. Consumption plunged and the economy fell into a recession, prompting companies including Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. and High Frequency Economics to predict even more sovereign debt sales to revive growth.
  • Singapore Predicts 3% Growth This Year as Global Outlook Falters. Singapore said a global slowdown in the final months of the year will cap full-year economic growth at about 3 percent before an uneven recovery in 2015. The island’s expansion will probably ease after gross domestic product rose 3.3 percent in the first three quarters from a year earlier, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said today. GDP grew 2.8 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier, and gained an annualized 3.1 percent from the second quarter, more than an October estimate. 
  • ECB’s Coeure Says Officials Won’t Rush as They Debate All Assets. The European Central Bank won’t make a hasty decision to add more stimulus and will hinge any measures on incoming economic data, Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said. “We’ll have to understand how what we’ve already decided works -- we’re not going to rush to a new decision without knowing,” Coeure said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua. “We have to look at the data around us, and we have to discuss thoroughly all possible options in particular when it comes to buying new assets. There’s unanimous agreement in the Governing Council that there might be situations where we’d have to do more.”
  • Asian Stocks Advance Third Day as Japan Plays Catch-Up. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark gauge heading for a three-day advance, as consumer and industrial shares climbed as Japanese stocks rallied after a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.1 percent to 140.62 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo.
  • Hagel Exit Shows Obama Has Taken Power Away From Pentagon. President Barack Obama pushed Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel out of his job today after less than 21 months, with White House officials citing disagreements over Iraq and Syria policy. Hagel, who had grown increasingly frustrated with tight White House management of policy, was ready to go anyway, a U.S. defense official said. He resigned without a fight.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Ferguson Grand Jury Decision: Streaming Coverage.
  • Federal Government to Mandate More Calorie Counts. Final Labeling Rules, to be Unveiled Tuesday, Will Apply to Movie Theaters, Convenience Stores.
  • United Technologies(UTX) CEO Chenevert Abruptly Steps Down. Gregory Hayes Named as Successor; Edward Kangas Elected Nonexecutive Chairman.
Fox News:
  • Grand jury in Ferguson case does not indict officer in Michael Brown shooting. Protesters fired about 100 gunshots, burned buildings, looted stores and vandalized police cars in Ferguson, Mo. Monday night after a grand jury did not indict a police officer who shot and killed an unarmed black teenager in August. Heavily armed police fired pepper spray and smoke canisters to disperse the crowd of protesters. It was not immediately clear if there were any injuries or if anyone had been arrested.
CNBC:
  • David Tepper to return billions to clients. Billionaire money manager David Tepper plans to return billions of dollars to clients amid a year of poor performance by his hedge funds. Appaloosa Management will return between 10 percent and 20 percent of investor assets by the end of 2014, according to a person familiar with the firm. 
Zero Hedge:
  • Ferguson Grand Jury Verdict: No Indictment; Shots Fired, Police Car Destroyed, Tear-Gas Deployed, Looting, Protests In Major Cities.
  • Liquidity Does Not Create Solvency.
  • Currency Wars Reignite As Yuan Tumbles Most In 2 Months And Chinese Bond Market Freezes. (graph)
  • Mapping Recent "Incidents" Between Russia And NATO.
  • Just 8 Numbers.
  • Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge 18% Among Young Americans.
  • US Stocks Surge To 'Best' Streak In 86 years. (graph)
  • Global Business Confidence Collapses To Post-Lehman Lows. (graph)
Business Insider:
  • ISIS Is Building An Army of Child Soldiers In The Capital Of Its 'Caliphate'.
  • With Putin's Russia Looming, Finland Is Now Debating Joining NATO.
  • Putin Just Tightened His Control Of The East Black Sea.
China Securities Journal:
  • China Rate Cut Isn't Start of Full-Scale Stimulus. China can't go back to the old ways of boosting investment with stimulus and leading to an asset bubble, according to a front-page commentary. Long-term costs would be higher if China continues to cut benchmark interest rates to control financing costs, the commentary said.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 -3.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.0 -2.0 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.37%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.10%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (BWS)/.68
  • (CPB)/.72
  • (CBRL)/1.29
  • (DSW)/.52
  • (EV)/.63
  • (TIFF)/.77
  • (ADI)/.68
  • (CTRP)/.32
  • (HPQ)/.79
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • 3Q GDP is estimated to rise +3.3% versus a prior estimate of a +3.5% gain.
  • 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a prior estimate of a +1.8% gain.
  • 3Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a prior estimate of a +1.4% gain.
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index for September is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in August.
  • The 3Q Hour Price Purchase Index is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.81% gain in 2Q.
  • The S&P/CS 20 City Home Price Index MoM SA for September is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.15% decline in August.
10:00 am EST
  • The Consumer Confidence Index for November is estimated to rise to 96.0 versus 94.5 in October.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for November is estimate to fall to 16.0 versus 20.0 in October.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German GDP report, $35B 5Y T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports and the (JEC) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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