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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:34 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Japan Is Running Out of Options by William Pesek. Minutes from the central bank's Oct. 31 board meeting, at which officials surprised the world by expanding an already massive quantitative-easing program, show that Kuroda now has a budding mutiny on his hands. Many of his staffers think the central bank has already gone too far to weaken the yen and buy virtually every bond in sight. That's a problem for Kuroda and Abe in two ways.
  • Asian Stocks Rise for Fourth Day as Materials Shares Lead Gains. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for a fourth day of gains, as materials and health-care shares advanced, countering a decline in Japan’s Topix (TPX) index amid a stronger yen. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.1 percent to 140.90 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo after rising 1.1 percent the past three trading days. Japan’s Topix slid 0.3 percent as the yen gained 0.1 percent to 117.81 per dollar after advancing 0.3 percent yesterday.
  • Oil Bust of 1986 Reminds U.S. Drillers of Price War Risks. The last time that U.S. oil drillers got caught up in a price war orchestrated by Saudi Arabia, it ended badly for the Americans. In 1986, the Saudis opened the spigot and sparked a four-month, 67 percent plunge that left oil just above $10 a barrel. The U.S. industry collapsed, triggering almost a quarter-century of production declines, and the Saudis regained their leading role in the world’s oil market.
  • RBA’s Lowe Sees Aussie Dollar Falling With Commodity Prices. Australia’s dollar is likely to drop in line with commodity export prices, central bank Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said, as the currency hit a four-year low. “If the exchange rate is to play its important stabilizing role, it needs to go down when the terms of trade and investment are declining,” Lowe said in a speech in Sydney late yesterday. “We have seen some adjustment, but if our assessment of the fundamentals is correct we would expect to see more in time."
Wall Street Journal:
  • Justice Department Investigating Possible HSBC Leak to Hedge Fund. Investigation Comes as Part of Broader Currencies’ Market Probe.
Fox News:
  • In interview, Darren Wilson says there was 'no way' Michael Brown had his hands up during shooting. The Ferguson, Mo. police officer who shot and killed an unarmed black teenager in August said in an interview aired on Tuesday that there was "no way" Michael Brown had his hands up right before he was killed -- disputing one of the core controversies at the heart of a case that touched off nationwide protests and racial unrest.
MarketWatch.com: 
  • Two mini–flash crashes rock stock market Tuesday. In two separate instances Tuesday, stocks plummeted sharply for a brief period before returning to normal. At around roughly 10:18 a.m. Eastern, 88 stocks fell or rose by 1% or more. Eric Hunsader, founder of Nanex LLC, pointed out the changes on his Twitter feed.
Zero Hedge:
  • Forget Ferguson, 244 Teenagers Have Been Shot In Chicago Since Michael Brown Died.
  • Grant Williams: The Consequences Of Economic Peace. (video)
  • "Bearish" Mark Spitznagel Profiting Strongly Since 2009, Warns "Only So Much Debt An Economy Can Take".
Business Insider: 
  • This Is What Ferguson Looks Like The Day After Riots.
  • Uber Will Be Valued At $40 Billion In New Round, Says Report.
  • Russia Is Building A Network of Military Bases In The Arctic.
Reuters:
  • Microsoft(MSFT) to Pay China $140 Million for “Tax Evasion”. China has levied about $140 million in back taxes from Microsoft in the first major case concerning cross-border tax evasion in the country, as regulators ramp up pressure on U.S. corporations doing business there.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.50 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.50 +.5 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.29%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.16%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (DE)/1.57
  • (CNQR)/.20 
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Durable Goods Orders for October are estimated to fall -.6% versus a -1.3% decline in September.
  • Durables Ex Transports for October are estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.2% decline in September.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for October are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -1.7% decline in September.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 288K versus 291K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2350K versus 2330K prior.
  • Personal Income for October is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in September.
  • Personal Spending for October is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.2% decline in September.
  • The PCE Core for October is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in September.
9:45 am EST
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager for November is estimated to fall to 63.0 versus 66.2 in October.
9:55 am EST
  • Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for November is estimated to rise to 90.0 versus a prior estimate of 89.4.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales for October are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in September.
  • New Home Sales for October are estimated to rise to 470K versus 467K in September.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +220,000 barrels versus a +2,608,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,363,640 barrels versus a +1,034,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -436,360 barrels versus a -2,056,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.3% versus a +1.1% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK GDP report, $29B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by metals/mining and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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