Friday, October 19, 2018

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Earnings Jitters, Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Biotech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.54 +2.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.66 +.77%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.92 +1.95%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.85 +2.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 +4.29%
  • Total Put/Call 1.13 -13.7%
  • NYSE Arms .93 -28.46%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.98 +.49%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 417.0 +.38%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.90 -1.70%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 302.25 -6.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.81 +.10%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 203.80 -1.28%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.92 -.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.50 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -45.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.04 +.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.30% unch.
  • Yield Curve 28.75 -2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.66%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.7 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.2 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.0 -2.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 +1.0 basis point
  • 79.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 80.9% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -2 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -80 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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