Monday, October 22, 2018

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Earnings Jitters, Technical Selling, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.61 -1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.52 -.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.73 -2.11%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.19 -.47%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 +9.09%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 -10.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 +49.38%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.29 -.33%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 419.0 +.31%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.13 -1.91%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 304.25 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.81 +.05%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 202.42 -1.04%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.32 +.27%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.25 +1.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -43.0 +2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.98 -.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.30% unch.
  • Yield Curve 28.5 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.74 USD/Metric Tonne -.12%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.5 +1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -28.2 +1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 -1.0 basis point
  • 83.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 83.4% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -54 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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