Thursday, June 18, 2020

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Geopolitical Tensions, Coronavirus 2nd Wave Worries, Increasing Biden Presidency Odds, Homebuilding/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 33.2 -.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.14 -.44%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.96 +1.11%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 70.2 +3.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -6.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .82 +7.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 -30.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 +3.84%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 922.14 +1.23%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.48 +3.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 178.75 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 +1.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 196.45 -4.45%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.15 -.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.0 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -1.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  114.0 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.31 -.66%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .15% unch.
  • Yield Curve 51.75 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.88 USD/Metric Tonne +.84%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 126.70 -13.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -192.0 +4.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.9 -1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.26 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +25 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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