Thursday, June 25, 2020

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Volcker Rule Change, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 33.5 -.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.80 -.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 68.3 -2.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 -20.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .85 -13.3%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -65.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.01 +1.22%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 948.40 +1.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.73 +2.59%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 177.25 +6.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.1 +2.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 201.82 -3.58%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.59 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75+.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 +1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  113.0 -1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.43 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% unch.
  • Yield Curve 48.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.65 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 168.20 +11.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -85.50 +2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.3 -2.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.32 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +129 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -143 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +49 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

No comments: