Thursday, July 02, 2020

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Better US Economic Data, Less European/Emerging Market/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Energy/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.7 -6.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.25 -.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.24 -.78%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.88 -2.33%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 -25.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .82 -1.2%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -53.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.29 -1.03%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 978.02 -1.40%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.11 -3.26%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 177.5 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.63 -1.61%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 175.05 -6.0%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.55 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  108.0 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.5 +2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.61 +.28%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 51.0 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.30 USD/Metric Tonne -.22%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 188.10 +3.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -65.90 +2.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.10 +1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.40 +5.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +243 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +102 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/consumer staple/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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