Thursday, July 30, 2020

Stocks Mostly Lower into Afternoon on Global Recession Fears, Earnings Outlooks, Oil Decline, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness


 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.4 +5.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.61 +.28%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.2 +2.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.0 +3.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 146 .0 +36.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .76 +4.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.31 +4.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.62 +1.04%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 854.83 +.16%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.12 +5.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.0 -.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  73.87 -1.03%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 192.73 +2.1%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.84 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.75 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +1.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  90.75 -1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.32 -.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 44.25 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.49 USD/Metric Tonne -1.19%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 247.1 +17.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 128.80 -19.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.1 +1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.52 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -134 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -122 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +37 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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