Friday, July 10, 2020

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Oil Gain, Sector Rotation, Short-Covering, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 27.6 -5.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.30 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.87 -.60%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.70 -5.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 -9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .79 +2.6%
  • NYSE Arms .65 -.50%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.14 +.73%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 977.15.0 +.33%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.83 +1.80%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 169.0 +3.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  80.51 +1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 195.03 +1.43%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 174.22 +.28%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 14.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  94.0 -1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.75 +.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 46.0 -3.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 225.9 +1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -38.80 +11.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.20 -4.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.39 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -82 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer staple sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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