Monday, February 06, 2023

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Fed Credibility Concerns, Escalating US/China Tensions, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.7 +7.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .69%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.3 +.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.67 +.39%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +3.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.7 +4.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 +5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .79 -12.2%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -26.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.72 +1.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 346.97 +.67%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 307.0 -9.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.3 +4.2% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 360.8 +3.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 +5.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 224.72 +2.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.8 -.22%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 20.0 basis points +3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  138.0 +11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 104.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .69 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.0 -.69%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.64% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 122.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 58.1 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.90 +2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 100.6 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 224.23 -.57:  Growth Rate +.4% -.2 percentage point, P/E 18.3 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.03% -20.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .41 -8.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -82.5 basis points (2s/10s) -5.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +.67% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.44% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 70.3%(+10.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 54.9%(+0.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
US Covid-19:
  • 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.9%(-2.5 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +26 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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