Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.08%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.48% -2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 94.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.2 +.7 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.0 -.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.0 +.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +12.7% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.45 +.32: Growth Rate +9.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.23% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 430.51 +1.29: Growth Rate +15.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 33.0 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 +15.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.45 /+1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.8 -.4
- US Yield Curve 47.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.3% -3.8 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 83.4% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 53.2%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +340 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +24 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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