Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.09 -.16%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.50% +11.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 95.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.3 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.9 +.8 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.3 -1.0 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.4 -.2 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +12.7% +.3 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.13 +.15: Growth Rate +9.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.6 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.24% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% +.6 percentage point
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 429.22 +.22: Growth Rate +14.9% unch., P/E 33.1 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.2 -.9
- US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.1% -1.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 83.4% (-14.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 52.0%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +263 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -76 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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