Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.19 +.7%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.44 +.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.23 unch.
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.1 +.6%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 139.8 -1.8%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 49.7 +2.7%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.2 +2.1
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.0 -4.0
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -30.9 +6.6
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.7 -4.9
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.14 +.35: Growth Rate +24.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.50% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 918.54 +5.71: Growth Rate +77.1% +1.1 percentage points, P/E 18.9 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.19 +11.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.6 +.14%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.10 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.0% +.2 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.8% -.5 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.42% -5.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 -15.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 91.0% (-2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 74.0%(-1.7 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +4 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -88 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -82 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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