Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.8 -1.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.99 +1.7% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 +1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.5 +.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 141.4 -.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 55.2 +2.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.9 -1.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.4 -3.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.2 +5.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(11 of 500 reporting) +188.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 370.78 +3.84:  Growth Rate +26.1% +1.4 percentage points, P/E 20.0 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.60% +7.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 893.71 +42.23: Growth Rate +72.3% +8.1 percentage point, P/E 18.8 -.6 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 -2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 26.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.54 -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.57 euros/megawatt-hour +4.4%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.7% -.5 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.46 +5.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 48.5% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 46.2%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,340 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +7 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +280 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long