Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.4 +1.1%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.1 -.9%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.20 +4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.2 -.1%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 142.2 -.01%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 55.0 +1.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.2 -.9
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.9 -1.9
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +.9
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.4 -.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +14.7% -1.8 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.41 +.24: Growth Rate +24.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.2 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.51% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 846.24 +.91: Growth Rate +63.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.8 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -17.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 25.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.7 -2.9%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.90 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.8% +1.1 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.40% -9.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.56 -13.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for September 16th FOMC meeting: 50.0% (-1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 46.2%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +308 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -231 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +95 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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