Sunday, January 08, 2006

Weekly Outlook

Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters

There are some important economic reports and a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - Consumer Credit
Tues. - Wholesale Inventories
Wed. - None of note
Thur. - Trade Balance, Import Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Monthly Budget Statement
Fri. - Producer Price Index, Advance Retail Sales, Business Inventories

A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Alcoa Inc.(AA)
Tues. - Genentech (DNA), Supervalu(SVU)
Wed. - None of note
Thur. - Freddie Mac(FRE), MGIC Investment(MTG), Navistar International(NAV)
Fri. - None of note

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - Fed’s Guynn speaking, JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, Citigroup Global Entertainment/Media/Telecom Conference
Tue. - JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, Needham Growth Conference, SG Cowen Consumer Conference, Citigroup Global Entertainment/Media/Telecom Conference
Wed. - Needham Growth Conference, Citigroup Global Entertainment/Media/Telecom Conference, SG Cowen Consumer Conference, JP Morgan Healthcare Conference
Thur. - Needham Growth Conference, Deutsche Bank Real Estate Conference, JP Morgan Healthcare Conference
Fri. - Needham Growth Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher as technical buying, bargain-hunting, short-covering and seasonal strength more than offsets higher inflation readings and profit-taking. I added to my (BBY)/(ANF)/(RACK) longs and existing shorts on Friday. My trading indicators are back to giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Chart of Interest

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Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,285.45 +2.47%*

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Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was very positive. The advance/decline line rose, almost every sector gained and volume was above average on the week. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower. However, the AAII % Bulls fell again to 29.35%. This contrary indicator has declined 29.25 percentage points in eight weeks and is now approaching depressed levels, which is a huge positive considering most major averages are at 4 ½ year highs. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.21% which is only 100 basis points above all-time lows set in June 2003. Moreover, the benchmark 10-year T-note yield fell 2 basis points on the week after the Fed made less hawkish comments, economic data was mixed and measures of inflation decelerated.

Technology stocks outperformed on optimism over increased corporate spending, new consumer products and lower interest rates. Likewise, energy shares gained as oil rose on fund inflows and fears over Middle-east stability after the hospitalization of Ariel Sharon. Unleaded Gas futures bounced on the same catalysts, but are still almost 40% below September highs even as refinery utilization remains below normal as a result of the hurricanes. Natural gas supplies this week increased by the most during any week of January since record-keeping began in 1994 and are now 6.8% above the 5-year average for this time of year even as over 19% of daily Gulf of Mexico production remains shut-in. Natural gas prices have plunged almost 40% in 3 weeks. Gold rose on the week as the dollar declined and international diversification continued.

I still believe prices for many commodities are being driven by fear and record capital inflows into commodity funds, rather than fundamentals. I continue to expect global energy demand destruction, decelerating economic growth and a significant increase in supplies into 2006 to push energy prices substantially lower from current levels. US stocks have gotten off to one of the best starts to a new year in recent memory. I am expecting the S&P 500 to return around 15% for the year as long-term interest rates remain low, inflation decelerates, economic growth slows to averages rates, energy prices fall, the dollar remains stable, the job market remains healthy, housing slows to more sustainable levels, consumer/investor/corporate confidence improves, demand for US assets increases further and p/e multiples expand.


*5-day % Change

Friday, January 06, 2006

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,285.45 +2.47%
DJIA 10,959.31 +1.62%
NASDAQ 2,305.62 +3.94%
Russell 2000 699.39 +3.16%
DJ Wilshire 5000 n/a
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,130.46 +2.08%
S&P Barra Growth 615.33 +2.61%
S&P Barra Value 665.64 +2.34%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 600.10 +.66%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 808.15 +2.29%
Morgan Stanley Technology 553.27 +5.31%
Transports 4,214.28 -.64%
Utilities 415.15 +2.09%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,368 +1.0%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 53.0 +96.07%
Put/Call .65 -27.78%
NYSE Arms .86 -27.73%
Volatility(VIX) 11.0 -5.25%
ISE Sentiment 154.00 -5.52%
AAII % Bulls 29.35 -21.31%
AAII % Bears 40.22 +10.16%
US Dollar 88.92 -2.37%
CRB 339.47 +3.08%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.60 +.52%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.21 +6.48%
Unleaded Gasoline 181.55 +8.52%
Natural Gas 9.63 -13.85%
Heating Oil 180.06 +3.78%
Gold 540.80 +4.06%
Base Metals 155.65 +2.13%
Copper 208.25 +2.38%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.37 -.45%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.21% -.16%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +9.43%
Gold & Silver +7.95%
Semis +7.79%
Internet +6.32%
Wireless +5.65%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers +.70%
Papers +.37%
Foods +.28%
Retail -.20%
Broadcasting -.51%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day % Change

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Israeli Prime Minister Sharon was in “critical but stable” condition after a brain scan today following surgery showed “significant” improvement, the hospital said.
- A federal appeals court upheld the obstruction-of-justice conviction of Martha Stewart, the homemaking entrepreneur who went to jail for lying to federal authorities probing her stock sale.
- Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) CEO Semel today will outline a plan to create software that lets consumers access the company’s services from televisions and cell phones to lure users to spend more time on its Web sites.
- Intel(INTC) wants to surf a “wave of creativity” into consumer electronics.
- The unemployment rate in the dozen nations sharing the euro remained at 8.3% in November, 66% higher than that of the United States.
- Best Buy(BBY), the No. 1 US consumer electronics company, said December same-store sales rose 5.8%, while Circuit City(CC) said sales rose 11%.
- EMC Corp.(EMC), the world’s biggest maker of data-storage computers and programs, said fourth-quarter sales rose more than it had predicted.
- Pfizer Inc.(PFE) said it is adding radio-frequency identification tags to all US shipments of its impotence drug Viagra as an anti-counterfeiting measure.
- Crude oil is climbing more than a dollar in NY, heading for a second straight weekly gain, on fears of destabilization of the Middle East.

Wall Street Journal:
- Citigroup(C), HJ Heinz(HNZ) and Pfizer(PFE) are among US stocks that currently have a higher after-tax dividend yield than 10-year US Treasury bonds, a trend that makes such stocks appealing to bond investors.
- Gap Inc.(GPS) is redesigning its stores to make them friendlier and more approachable, including brown leather couches and reading material in a style that evokes Starbucks(SBUX) coffee outlets.
- BellSouth Corp.(BLS), AT&T Inc.(T) and other telephone companies want to charge fees to guarantee fast Internet access for music, movies and other electronically delivered services.
- The US office market vacancy rate improved for the seventh straight quarter in the last period of 2005, as office markets in NY and parts of California benefited from job growth.
- Actively managed US stock mutual funds beat market indexes in five out of nine categories defined by Morningstar in 2005.

NY Post:
- Burlington Coat Factory(BCF) may be sold by month’s end to a private equity firm after posting better-than-expected sales results.

NY Times:
- US charities stand to benefit from the largesse of former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who has pleaded guilty to conspiracy and wire fraud, as both Democrats and Republicans donate tens of thousands of dollars they received in political contributions from him.

Washington Post:
- The US and its European allies have enough votes to bring Iran before the UN Security Council for possible censure over its nuclear program, citing US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

AP:
- Boston Scientific(BSX) may reach an agreement as soon as next week to acquire cardiac device maker Guidant, citing Boston Scientific spokesman Paul Donovan.
- NYC recorded its lowest death rate ever in 2004 due in part to a 14% drop in fatal heart attacks, citing the health dept.
- A campaign fund-raising group for US Senator Hillary Clinton has agreed to a $35,000 fine for underreporting hundreds of thousands of dollars spent on a Hollywood fund-raiser in 2000.

Reuters:
- EchoStar Communications’(DISH) CEO Ergen said on Thursday he does not expect to reach a settlement with TiVo(TIVO) before their legal battle over patent rights reaches the courts.

Detroit News:
- GM(GM) plans to cut the retail price of its vehicles to attract buyers and rely less on rebates and other promotions.

Rzeczpospolita:
- The Polish government will keep troops in Iraq into 2007.

Euro am Sonntag:
- Samsung Electronics, whose shares are traded in Seoul, London and Luxembourg, plans to have the stock listed in the US if conditions are “favorable.”

AFP:
- Al-Qaeda’s deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called on President Bush to admit defeat in Iraq, and said withdrawal of American troops from the Middle Eastern nation would be a victory for Islam.

Unemployment Rate Falls Below 5%

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for December was 108K versus estimates of 200K and an upwardly revised 305K in November.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for December was 18K versus estimates of 0K and 8K in November.
- The Unemployment Rate for December fell to 4.9% versus estimates of 5.0% and a rate of 5.0% in November.
- Average Hourly Earnings for December rose .3% versus estimates of a .2% gain and a .1% rise in November.
BOTTOM LINE: The US economy added 108,000 jobs in December, capping the second straight year American employers added more than 2 million workers, Bloomberg said. Overall, this report is positive for stocks as 108,000 new jobs is enough to keep unemployment low without generating substantial unit labor cost increases, which account for two-thirds of inflation. I expect this trend to continue over the intermediate-term.