Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Lower Energy Prices, Diminishing Global Growth Fears, Short-Covering, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Sightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.01 -3.61%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.26 +.35%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.79 -1.67%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.26 -1.73%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +13.86%

• Total Put/Call .81 +9.46%

• NYSE Arms .74 +1.74% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.99 -.62%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 144.50 +.10%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 90.0 +4.75%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 344.32 +1.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.25 -2.0 bps

• TED Spread 24.25 -.25 bp

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.50 -.5 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 243.0 -1 bp

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $138.0/Metric Tonne -.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.0 -.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.0 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 -3 bps

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +26 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Russia Boosts Mediterranean Force as U.S. Mulls Syria Strike. Russia is sending three more ships to the eastern Mediterranean to bolster its fleet there as a U.S. Senate panel will consider President Barack Obama’s request for authority to conduct a military strike on Syria. Russia is sending two destroyers, including the Nastoichivy, the flagship of the Baltic Fleet, and the Moskva missile cruiser to the region, Interfax reported today, citing an unidentified Navy official. That follows last week’s dispatch of a reconnaissance ship to the eastern Mediterranean, four days after the deployment of an anti-submarine ship and a missile cruiser to the area, which were reported by Interfax. Syria hosts Russia’s only military facility outside the former Soviet Union, at the port of Tartus.

• Obama’s Syria Policy Adrift, Republican Royce Tells Panel. The Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee criticized President Barack Obama’s Syria policy today as “adrift,” without saying whether he would support a military strike in response to chemical weapons use by Syria’s regime. “The administration’s Syria policy doesn’t build confidence,” Representative Ed Royce, of California, said at the start of a committee hearing on Obama’s request for congressional authorization of military action. “For over two years, U.S. policy has been adrift.” “There are no easy answers,” Royce said. “Syria and much of the Middle East are a mess.” Royce raised questions about the the complications of a U.S. military strike against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime during a civil war, without broad international backing. “What are the chances of escalation?” Royce asked. “Are different scenarios accounted for? If our credibility is on the line now, as is argued, what about if Assad retaliates?” 

• Italy’s Bonds Fall as Services Output Shrinks More Than Forecast. Italy’s 10-year government bonds declined after a report showed the nation’s service sector, based on a survey of purchasing managers, shrank more last month than economists forecast. Italy’s 10-year yields approached a six-week high as the Repubblica newspaper reported former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi may consider withdrawing his support for the coalition government before a vote on whether to oust him from the senate following his conviction for tax fraud. Portugal (GSPT10YR)’s 10-year yield reached a six-week high as a report said European Union and International Monetary Fund officials are discussing a precautionary program for the country.

• Merkel Recalls East German Collapse as Warning for Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel said the economic collapse of East Germany should serve as a lesson for Europe, since there’s no alternative to hard work to remain globally relevant. Merkel, addressing a campaign rally yesterday in the eastern town of Finsterwalde, south of Berlin, flaunted her credentials as a fellow one-time citizen of the former German Democratic Republic as she presented her vision for a more competitive Europe to the crowd of about 3,000. To sustain Europe’s high level of social expenditure relative to the rest of the world, Europeans must innovate, “be better than the others” and “exert ourselves,” Merkel said. “Everyone who lived in the GDR knows that: Whoever is not economically productive, whoever can’t sell products, will get into difficulties.” 

• Merkel’s Frugal Stance on Greece Aid No. 1 Vote-Winner, CDU Says. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s bearing as a frugal “housewife” on Greece and other troubled euro nations is a campaign vote-winner that won’t change after election day, a regional leader of her party said. “The Swabian housewife, who doesn’t spend money without getting something in return, is seen by voters as the right leader for Germany in the crisis,” Michael Schierack, who heads Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union in the eastern state of Brandenburg, said yesterday in an interview in the capital, Potsdam. People who think Merkel will loosen aid terms to Greece and other countries after elections “are fooling themselves.” 

• European Stocks Are Little Changed as Vodafone Advances. European stocks were little changed as Vodafone Group Plc led telecommunications shares higher and as investors waited for a U.S. Senate committee to vote on a resolution enabling President Barack Obama to attack Syria. Vodafone added 2.2 percent as it rebounded from yesterday’s biggest drop in two months. Ryanair slumped the most in more than five years after Europe’s largest discount airline said full-year profit may fall short of its forecast range. ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG lost 5 percent after a holding company for investments owned by KKR & Co. and Permira Advisers LLP said it is selling shares in the broadcaster. The Stoxx 600 added 0.2 percent to 302.34 at the close of trading, after earlier declining as much as 0.7 percent.

• China Record Drop in Credit Growth Puts Momentum at Risk. China’s leaders are extending a clampdown on credit, prompting analysts from JPMorgan Chase & Co. to Societe Generale SA to caution that the economy is vulnerable to weakening after the pickup so far this quarter. New yuan loans were probably little changed in August, after aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit, posted a fourth straight drop in July, the longest streak in 11 years of data. Analysts’ median estimates point to the fastest industrial-output gain since December and the slowest producer-price decline in six months. 

• Russia Joins India to Taiwan in Missing Debt Auction Targets. Russia failed to raise as much money as planned at a government bond auction, joining nations from India to Taiwan in missing borrowing targets as investors keep away from emerging-market assets. The Finance Ministry in Moscow sold 6.07 billion rubles ($182 million) of its so-called OFZ notes due May 2016 after offering 13.6 billion rubles, according to a statement on its website. Russia canceled an auction last week as only one bidder took part. The ministry issued today’s bonds at a 6.5 percent average yield, the top of its proposed range. Developing nations are scaling back as the prospect of the U.S. paring financial stimulus measures and tensions over Syria curb investor appetite for riskier assets.

• How the Bank Lobby Loosened U.S. Reins on Derivatives. Lew insisted that Gensler coordinate better with the Securities and Exchange Commission, whose new chairman, Mary Jo White, was also present. Gensler, who was deep into negotiations with his European counterparts, was surprised by Lew’s demand. He’d been hearing the same request from lobbyists seeking to slow the process, and he told the Treasury chief it felt like his adversary bankers were in the room, the people said. 

• Pimco Total Return Fund Lost 14% of Assets in Four Months. The world’s biggest mutual fund keeps getting smaller.Bill Gross’s Pimco Total Return Fund shed $41 billion, or 14 percent of its assets, in the past four months through losses and investor withdrawals. The fund suffered $7.7 billion in net redemptions in August, Chicago-based researcher Morningstar Inc. (MORN) said today in an e-mailed statement, the fourth straight month of withdrawals.

Wall Street Journal:

• Syria Conflict: Live Updates.

• Australian Economic Boom Tempered by Slowing Demand From China. Some Australians Question Whether Mining Boom Has Ended. As China's economic engine slows, sending prices for iron ore and coal sharply lower, Australia is facing an economic dislocation, with unemployment rising to a 12-year high and growth slowing rapidly.

CNBC:

• Nasdaq reports another problem with its data feed. The Nasdaq had yet another problem Wednesday with the main data feed that was at the center of its unprecedented outage nearly two weeks ago. According to the exchange, a system called the "Securities Information Processor," or SIP, experienced an outage between 11:35 a.m. and 11:41 a.m. The outage affected the exchange's ability to transmit quotes in stock symbols PC through SPZ. But other market participants said the outage was worse than that. NYSE Arca said

• Saving habits backslide. Some people, it seems, never learn. After the financial crisis exposed the flaws in many consumers' spending and saving habits, many tightened the reins significantly, pushing the savings rate up from 3.8 percent in August 2008 to as high as 8.7 percent in December 2012, according to U.S. Commerce Department data. As of July of this year, the national consumer savings rate stood at 4.4 percent, the Commerce Department reported.

• Looking for a raise? Good luck with that. Here's another sad truth of the "new normal" after the Great Recession: Wages have flatlined and are unlikely to revive even though the job market is improving.

Zero Hedge: 

• Housing Affordability Plummets. (graph)

• Senate Foreign Relations Committee May Delay Syria Vote, As Republican Corker Gets Cold Feet Next.

• McCain 'Moar War' Trumps Berlusconi's Ouster-Talk As European Stocks Recover Early Losses. (graphs)

Business Insider: 

• Here's Anthony Weiner Totally Melting Down And Exploding At A Voter Who Called Him 'Scumbag'. (video)

• BEIGE BOOK: The Economy Is Growing, But Lending Has Weakened 'A Bit'. 

• For The First Time In A Year, More Than Half Of Americans Believe The Economy's Getting Worse. The Discover U.S. Spending Monitor – an indicator of consumer confidence – dropped 1.4 points in August, to 91.0. 51% of survey respondents said the economy was getting worse. This report marked the first time since September 2012 that a majority of respondents thought the economy is souring.

• Italy Is Getting Slammed As Berlusconi Threatens To 'Pull The Plug'.

• Jon Stewart Makes A Triumphant Return To 'The Daily Show,' And Shreds Obama On Syria. (video)

Ricochet:

• Republicans Shouldn't Sign On to Obama's Debacle.

Reuters:

• August ETF outflows of $17 bln, largest in U.S. ETF history. Investors pulled more than $17 billion from U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds in August, the largest monthly outflow in the 20-year history of the ETF industry, data firm IndexUniverse said on Wednesday. 

• Fed's Williams says he's open-minded on cutting bond buys this month. San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said Wednesday he still has not made up his mind as to whether he believes the U.S. central bank should begin paring its massive bond-buying stimulus when policymakers meet two weeks from now. "I'm going into this meeting with an open mind," he said, adding that his view will depend not only on how the economic data comes in between now and then but also on what his colleagues say at the discussion. Williams said the most important thing is that the Fed has an overall plan for ending its bond-buying program, rather than the exact timing of when the Fed begins trimming it. 

• U.S. auto sales on pace for best month since November 2007. U.S. auto sales were on a pace to show a gain as high as 17 percent in August as the industry raced toward its strongest month since just before the start of the 2007-2009 recession. 

• EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil stocks drop on Syria worries.

Financial Times:

• Beware the EM Central Bank FX Swap Trend. BNP Paribas has an interesting note out on the increased use of FX swaps by central banks.

Telegraph:

• New Indian central bank chief Raghuram Rajan warns of 'unpopular' measures. Raghuram Rajan has taken charge of India’s central bank, with the former International Monetary Fund chief economist warning he will take unpopular steps to tackle the country’s worst economic crisis in decades.

Echoing fears that European policymakers remain in a state of cognitive dissonance – recognizing the need for root-and-branch overhaul of peripheral banks, but backtracking on joint liability plans – Christopher Flowers, the legendary FIG investor who now runs the £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion) private equity group JC Flowers, sounded the alarm over the negative sovereign-bank feedback loop. In a shot across the bows of market bulls, who cite the return of capital flows to weaker eurozone states, Flowers issued a stark warning: "There is a scenario where we have a Lehman-type event: we wake up some Thursday and a big country is in trouble. "And the ECB will have to decide to support banks x, y, z. And then the ECB will, in fact, decide to own bank x, y, z.


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Repubblica:

• Berlusconi Mulls Pulling Plug on Govt, New Vote. Silvio Berlusconi may consider withdrawing his support for Letta's government and calling for elections this year.

Kyodo:

• BOJ's Kuroda Sees Big Risk in Postponing Tax Hike. Postponement may trigger sell-off of JGB's, Kuroda said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.61%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.24% 2) Software -.24% 3) Computer Services -.03%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• RYAAY, KMI, KMP, MTDR, TLK, WAL, FRAN, GWRE, GMED, UBNT, HAIN, HRB, LUX, DORM, NQ, NAV, AWK, SAI, MSFT,CHD, CRZO, TITN, KMR, CAB, VVUS and PIKE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWJ 2) KMI 3) XLP 4) CIEN 5) ADT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VVUS 2) CBI 3) CNQR 4) NUVA 5) COST
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.75%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +2.04% 2) Semis +1.98% 3) Education +1.53%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MHR, CIEN, SFUN, ETFC, MU, DG, VRNT, JCP, TASR, RPTP, TPX, ARIA, FNSR, RKUS, RPRX, JNPR, CATM, NWL, JDSU and YELP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ETFC 2) SFD 3) SE 4) KMP 5) ODP
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CERN 2) CME 3) MCHP 4) RDC 5) MAR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Growth Fears, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Click Here for Today's Market Take.

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.76 -1.47%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.80 +.09%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.91 +2.41%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.51 -.15%

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +23.81%

• Total Put/Call .74 -33.93%

• NYSE Arms .67 -39.31% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.53 -.31%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 144.36 +.08%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 85.91 +.12%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 341.48 +.37%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.25 +.75 bp

• TED Spread 24.50 +.5 bp

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 -.25 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 244.0 +6 bps

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $138.70/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.80 +6.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.90 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -88 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Obama Gets Boehner’s Support in ‘Call to Action’ Against Syria. President Barack Obama urged Congress to take a “prompt” vote authorizing military action against Syria and won endorsement for the cause from the two top Republicans in the U.S. House. Backing from House Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor will help Obama as he makes his case to lawmakers who’ve questioned the evidence presented by the administration that the Syrian government was behind a sarin gas attack last month or whether the U.S. has a vital interest in the region.

• European Stocks Decline; Benchmark Stoxx 600 Index Falls. European stocks declined as U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner said he supports the president’s call for action against Syria, offsetting better-than-forecast manufacturing data. Vodafone (VOD) Group Plc slipped 5 percent as shareholders weighed the details of the $130-billion deal to sell its stake in Verizon Wireless. Nokia Oyj soared 34 percent after Microsoft Corp. agreed to buy its handset business for 5.44 billion euros ($7.2 billion). Dufry AG, the operator of duty-free stores, climbed 3.4 percent after winning contracts in Brazil. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.4 percent to 301.78 at the close. Stock markets were rattled earlier, with the gauge losing as much as 0.7 percent, by what Israel said was a joint flight test with the U.S. of its Arrow missile-interception system over the Mediterranean Sea.

• Treasuries Slide Most in a Month as Factory Gains Spur Fed Bets. Treasuries fell the most in a month as a gauge of U.S. manufacturing rose more than forecast in August, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve will soon announce to reduce monetary stimulus. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes climbed as much as 13 basis points, extending the biggest annual rout in U.S. government securities in almost four decades. Treasuries fell earlier as demand for refuge eased while the threat of an immediate U.S. military strike on Syria declined. The Labor Department will report Sept. 6 U.S. payrolls added more jobs in August than in July, and Fed policy makers meet Sept. 17-18.

• Crude Advances as Obama Seeks Support on Syria. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced as U.S. President Barack Obama sought support in Congress for a military strike on Syria, bolstering concern that oil shipments from the Middle East will be disrupted. Futures gained as much as 1.1 percent after House Speaker John Boehner told reporters he will back the president’s call for action against Syria in response to the alleged use of chemical weapons. Obama stepped up lobbying today after requesting authorization from Congress on Aug. 31. Prices climbed earlier as Israel said it carried out a missile joint test launch with the U.S. in the Mediterranean Sea. “The market is processing what appears to be a slow grind to military action against Syria,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York hedge fund that focuses on energy. “There’s headline risk ahead of us. The reaction to the Israeli missile test is an example of what we will be seeing until the Syria situation is resolved.” WTI crude for October delivery climbed $1.01, or 0.9 percent, to $108.66 a barrel at 1:39 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Trading was 2.6 percent above the 100-day average. There was no floor trading yesterday because of the U.S. Labor Day holiday, and yesterday’s electronic transactions will be booked today for settlement purposes. Brent oil for October settlement increased $1.47, or 1.3 percent, to $115.80 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Trading was 29 percent above the 100-day average. The European benchmark grade traded at a $7.14 premium to WTI.

• Gold Rises First Time in Four Days on Middle Ease Tension. Gold gained for the first time in four sessions after Israel tested its missile-defense system, fueling concern that tensions in the Middle East will escalate and boosting the appeal of haven assets. Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3 percent to $1,400.50 an ounce at 10:20 a.m. on the Comex in New York.

• Dealers in Debt Pare Commitments Raising Risk as Rules Bite. The worst losses in U.S. debt in at least 37 years are being magnified by investors exiting the market at the same time new regulations prompt Wall Street firms to cut back on trading corporate bonds. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s U.S. Broad Market Index is on pace to drop 4.41 percent, the biggest annual loss since at least 1976. Investors pulled $123 billion from bond funds since May, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. Trading in corporate fixed-income securities is the lowest ever as a proportion of outstanding debt, and volumes in Treasuries are little changed from 2007 levels even though the market has almost tripled to $11.5 trillion, Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and ICAP Plc data show. Bonds are getting riskier even with inflation at bay and corporate profits hitting new highs. “When bond investors start to meaningfully divest themselves of their positions, it will be analogous to yelling fire in a crowded theater,” Michael Underhill, the chief investment officer at Capital Innovations LLC, which manages $1.5 billion, said in an e-mail Aug. 23.

• State Bank of India Credit Growth 21% y/y as of Now. Home and auto loans driving credit growth, Chairman Pratip Chaudhuri said in a Bloomberg TV India interview.

Wall Street Journal:

• What Is a Hedge Fund, Anyway? We explain the basics as a longtime ban on advertising ends.

Zero Hedge:

• Spain's Ying-Yang Charts. (graphs)

• Manufacturing ISM Rises To 55.7, Beats Expectations, Highest Since April 2011. (graph)

• Treasury Yields Spike Most In 2 Months; 10Y Closes In On 3%. (graph)

• India Scrambles For Plan D As Stocks, Currency Resume Collapse. (graphs)

• CIA-Armed And Trained Syrian Rebels "On Way To Battlefield".

Business Insider:

• It's Official: Apple(AAPL) Will Announce The Next iPhone On September 10.

• Microsoft's(MSFT) Stock Is Getting Crushed This Morning As Reality Sets In.

New York Times:

• World Economy Growing Unevenly, O.E.C.D. Says. The world economy will continue slowly expanding for the rest of the year, despite signs of relative weakness in China and other emerging markets, and an uneven recovery in Europe, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday. The picture in emerging economies is less promising, the organization noted. China, it said, “appears to have passed the trough” — the nadir of its economic cycle — but it and other emerging economies face significant uncertainty, including possible financial market disruptions.

• Former Chinese Railroad Official Indicted on Bribery Charges. A former high-ranking Chinese railroad official, whose daughter’s employment at JPMorgan Chase is a focus of an antibribery investigation in the United States, has been formally indicted on bribery charges in a Beijing court. Zhang Shuguang, former deputy chief engineer at the Ministry of Railways, was indicted on charges related to 13 incidents of bribery from 2000 to 2011, Chinese news reports said on Tuesday.

Reuters:

• India's Sensex slumps 651 points on geopolitical worries. The BSE Sensex fell nearly 4 percent on Tuesday, retreating from a 2-1/2 week closing high in the previous session, as blue chip shares slumped as fears of military tensions in the Middle East roiled global markets.

WantChinaTimes:

• Chinese cities reporting inflated foreign investment data: paper. Some eastern Chinese cities have been found inflating the amount of foreign investments they receive by paying brokers to introduce US dollars from abroad, which adds to the financial burden of local authorities, the Chinese-language China Business News reports. According to the news outlet, certain cities in an unspecified eastern Chinese province have been hiring brokering agencies in Guangdong to set up firms under the names of people based in Hong Kong and Taiwan. The firms, which in actuality do not exist, then usher in US dollars, which means foreign investments for local governments. The brokering agencies bring in the "foreign investments" for a reward from local authorities — 170,000 yuan (US$28,000) in return for every US$1 million introduced — according to a report by Gong Zhen, an official from the Central Committee of the Jiu San Society. As a result of the practice, a city reported growth in the foreign investments for four consecutive years, according to Gong.

CCTV: 

• China's Xi Calls for Ban on Buying Gifts Using Public Funds. Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for a ban on using public funds to buy gifts or hold banquets during festivals, including the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, citing Xi as saying during a visit to the northeaster Chinese province of Liaoning. Xi also calls for a ban on using public funds for travel during holidays, CCTV said.