Thursday, November 17, 2016

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Global Trade Is Slowing. “China had a great run, but it’s over.” Around the world, many companies that binged on easy credit after the global financial crisis have excess capacity and are struggling to find buyers, since economic growth in the U.S., Europe, and Japan is relatively weak, and China’s economy is cooling. “The pie is growing more slowly, and that makes domestic producers more defensive about their share of it and more willing to fight when threatened,” says Tim Condon, chief Asia economist in Singapore with ING.
  • China Home-Price Growth Slows as Property Curbs Start to Bite. China’s runaway property market cooled slightly in October, as authorities intensified home-buying curbs to avert a potential housing bubble. New-home prices, excluding government-subsidized housing, gained last month in 62 of the 70 cities tracked by the government, compared with 63 in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Prices dropped in seven cities, compared with six a month earlier. They were unchanged in one.
  • Japan’s Abe Says Trump Is Trustworthy Leader After First Meeting. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Donald Trump was a trustworthy leader in comments after his first meeting with the U.S. President-elect whose statements on trade and security have sparked concern in Japan. Abe told reporters in New York he had frank discussions in a "warm atmosphere" at the meeting at Trump Tower that lasted more than an hour. He had sought to turn on the charm ahead of the appointment, referring to Trump’s "extraordinary talents" in a congratulatory message, and telling reporters as he left Tokyo that it was a "tremendous honor" to be holding talks with Trump ahead of other world leaders. He changed his schedule for a trip to Peru to spend time in New York.
  • Asian Stocks Extend Gains as Yellen Rate Commentary Buoys Dollar. Stocks from Australia to Japan paced gains in the U.S., while the dollar extended its advance versus Asian emerging-market currencies after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled an interest-rate hike could be imminent. Bonds in the region swung back to losses. Japan’s Topix index led the climb in Asia, on track for its longest run of gains in more than a year, after the S&P 500 Index came within four points of a record on Thursday. The yen swung around a five-month low as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded at its strongest level since February. The Korean won was the biggest decliner in Asia, followed by the Thai baht. The greenback’s gains weighed on oil and nickel as gold maintained losses. Sovereign debt from New Zealand to Japan to reversed a portion of their mid-week gains. The Topix index rose 0.4 percent as of 10:05 a.m. Tokyo time, rallying for a seventh day to extend gains at its highest level since early February. About 60 more equities climbed as fell on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.
  • Mnuchin’s Bank Accused of Redlining Black, Latino Home Buyers. (video) OneWest Bank, the lender Steven Mnuchin built and then sold last year, broke federal laws by keeping branches out of minority neighborhoods and making few mortgages to black and Latino borrowers, two housing advocacy groups alleged to U.S. regulators
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
Zero Hedge
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.5 -.75 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 43.75 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.26 -.14%
  • S&P 500 futures -.10%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (ANF)/.24
  • (BKE)/.52
  • (FL)/1.10
  • (HIBB)/.74
Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST
  • The Leading Index for October is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in September.     
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for November.
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kaplan speaking, Fed's George speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Canada CPI report, (PG) Analyst Meeting, (AIG) Investor Day and the (LRCX) Analyst Meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.42 -2.19%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.98 +.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.95 -.18%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 31.17 +4.14%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 +24.62%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -1.18%
  • NYSE Arms .93 -52.66
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.03 +.03%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 622.0 -1.97%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 105.51 +3.01%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.86 +3.80%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 43.64 -.65%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 276.32 +1.44%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.75 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 46.5 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -51.0 -2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.37 -.50%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .43% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 125.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $73.55/Metric Tonne +1.56%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.30 +11.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.2 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.9 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.92% +5.0 basis points
  • 96.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Feb. 1 meeting, 96.8% chance at March 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +248 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • U.S., IAEA Caution Iran for Breaching Terms of Nuclear Agreement. The U.S. and the International Atomic Energy Agency cautioned Iran for breaching limits to its heavy-water stockpile set out in last year’s nuclear deal with world powers. “Iran must strictly adhere to all commitments and technical measures,” IAEA envoy Laura Holgate said in a statement on Thursday. “We note with concern Iran’s accumulation of heavy water in excess of the limit.” Iran agreed in July 2015 was to limit its stockpile of heavy water, a non-radioactive material used in reactors and medical imaging, to 130 metric tons -- the amount deemed by signatories to the deal to be consistent with its needs. The IAEA said this month that the country’s stock rose to 130.1 metric tons, and Iran said it planned to sell part of its supply.
  • China Said to Plan Trading Platform for Credit-Default Swaps.
  • Mexico Raises Overnight Rate After Trump’s Win Wallops Peso. Mexico’s central bank raised borrowing costs for the fourth time this year after Donald Trump’s election dragged the peso to never-before-seen levels of more than 20 per dollar, boosting the risk of faster inflation. Policy makers increased the key rate a half point to 5.25 percent on Thursday, the highest level since 2009. Most of the 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg beforehand expected a half-point increase, with the rest split between a hike of three quarters of a point and a full-point. The peso fell 0.5 percent to 20.3032 per dollar at 2:13 p.m. in New York.
  • Europe Stocks Cheapest Since June to World Post Late-Day Rally. (video) European shares reversed losses to post a broad-based rally that lifted all industry groups in the last hours of trading. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.6 percent, the most in a week and erasing a slide of as much as 0.3 percent.
  • Yellen Sees Hike ‘Relatively Soon’ and Plans to Serve Full Term. (video) Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. central bank is close to lifting interest rates as the economy continues to strengthen, and signaled her intention to remain at the helm until her term ends in January 2018. A rate hike “could well become appropriate relatively soon if incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the committee’s objectives,” Yellen said in the text of testimony she delivered Thursday in Washington before Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. Yellen reiterated the expectation of Fed officials that future rate increases will be “gradual.” Bond prices have fallen and stocks have risen as investors anticipate that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to cut taxes and boost infrastructure and defense spending will lead to faster inflation and stronger growth.
  • Deficit’s Rising as Trump Prepares No-Recession Stimulus: Chart.
  • Pence Tells House GOP to Get Ready for Sweeping Legislation. Vice President-elect Mike Pence told House Republicans in a closed-door meeting Thursday to be ready to move a lot of legislation next year. “We’re going to move an agenda” focused on rebuilding the military and improving the economy, Pence told reporters after the meeting.In his remarks to House Republicans, Pence talked about how he and the new administration wanted members to “buckle up,” and get ready for a speedy start on policy. He also solicited suggestions for candidates to fill administration posts. 
  • Mortgage Rates Soar to 10-Month High After Trump Bond Rout. U.S. mortgage rates skyrocketed to a 10-month high as investors reacted to Donald Trump’s presidential election win by pulling money out of the bond market, driving up yields that guide home loans. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.94 percent, up from 3.57 percent last week and the highest since January, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. The average 15-year rate rose to 3.14 percent from 2.88 percent, the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage-finance company said.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.2% 2) Networking -.9% 3) REITs -.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TEGP, PFGC, FOXF, PLNT, DRYS, VSAT, MNK, FSLR, SPB, CSCO, ELLI, CATO, WMT, SAFM, WLB, PPC, TSN, CARA and BOFI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HAIN 2) DPZ 3) CL 4) MNK 5) FSLR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CRWS 2) ELLI 3) FSLR 4) EXP 5) ECOL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Social Media +3.5% 2) Gaming +2.5% 3) Homebuilding +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CVT, WNR, TTWO, HAIN, PLCE, BBY, NTAP, LPLA, ANW, TREE, STON, FLY, MU, MIDD and TMHC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) NTAP 2) NAVI 3) DLTR 4) FTNT 5) WMT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BBY 2) INCY 3) HAIN 4) NTAP 5) TSK
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: