Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less European Debt Angst, Bargain-Hunting, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -10.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.83 +.52%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.20 +1.49%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.32 -4.06%

• ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -15.6%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -8.9%

• NYSE Arms .84 -44.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.33 -.77%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 703.0 +.99%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.79 -5.26%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 290.75 -16.0 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.25 -3.37%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 217.50 -.41%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.02 +.64%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 30.25 +2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.5 +5.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.91 -.30%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.39% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 23.25 +.5 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 64.2 USD/Metric Tonne +2.26%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.8 -8.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -64.30 -9.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.60 +3.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97 -1.0 basis point
• 78.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 89.5% chance at March 20th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +258 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -2.2% 2) Tobacco -2.1% 3) Steel -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLT, OSTK, IIPR, AMX, MOMO, IMMU, MNK, HCC, KRO and PLT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CRC 2) CLR 3) CI 4) AA 5) OSTK

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LLY 2) RBBN 3) SFIX 4) AAPL 5) WRD

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +5.1% 2) Social Media +3.3% 3) Banks +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NCOM, JKS, EFG, AET, RCKT, FLOW, RFDI, OMF, Z, HCM, VONG, USAC, GM, LBC, COOP, VOD, ROAN, LILA, VTWO, ABG, OMF and LILA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PAA 2) MMM 3) FTNT 4) CMI 5) XLI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ACHC 2) ALNY 3) TWTR 4) PCG 5) FB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 74.5% of Issues Advancing, 22.5% Declining
• 9 New 52-Week Highs, 33 New Lows
• 23.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.1%
• Vix 19.8 -7.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.13 +.89%
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 -21.7%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Brexit Clears EU. Leaders Tell May It's the Only Deal Possible. 

• Trump Links French Protests With U.S. Treatment by EU on Trade.  

• Asia Manager Who Called China Tech Peak Is Ready to Dive Back in.  

• Russia Fires on Ukraine's Navy Near Crimea as Tensions Reignite.

• Asia Stocks to Slip, Treasuries Inch Toward 3%. Caution looks set to prevail in financial markets at the start of the week as worries about a slowing global economy showed little sign of abating. Australian shares fell at the open, while stock futures in Asia indicated lower starts in Japan and Hong Kong after the S&P 500 Index fell into correction territory on Friday. U.S. equity futures advanced, which may keep declines in the region in check. Oil ticked higher following its slump below $51 a barrel Friday that weighed on energy producers. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is back down at 3.04 percent, the lowest since September. The pound edged up after European Union leaders agreed to the Brexit deal from U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 indicated losses of about 1 percent as markets reopen after Friday’s holiday. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.6 percent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Asia's Fastest Spender, India Exports, Goldman on Hikes: Eco Day.

• Shale Boom Raises Specter of New Glut: Gulf Coast Oil Terminals.

• Oil's Sell-Off Below $60 Ripples All the Way Along the Curve.

• What Bond Gurus Are Saying About the Market Sell-Off.  

• Goldman Maps How Big Hawkish Rate Shock Would Affect Markets.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Brexit Deal Faces U.K. Parliament After EU Approval.

• Democrats Link Spending Bill, Mueller Probe.

• Borrowers Are Tapping Their Homes for Cash, Even as Rates Rise.

• Fraudsters Catch Venmo by Surprise.

• Store Traffic Falls Again on Black Friday but Not All News Is Bad.

• Relax, Falling Oil Prices Are Mostly a Good Thing.

MarketWatch.com:

• Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google: Which tech stocks to buy now.

• Bitcoin’s haven claim is destroyed amid broad pummeling of riskier assets.

• 10-year Treasury yield plumbs 10-week low to end Thanksgiving week.

Fox News:

• Mexico counters Trump claim, denies asylum deal with US as caravan migrants plan crossing today. 

• Harris, Booker 'basic income' plans could kill recipients' work ethic: think tank.

• Feds deliver tough warning after some caravan migrants rushing toward border try breaching fence.

CNBC: 

• Go to the mall or buy from your phone? More shoppers this holiday season are going mobile.

• Bitcoin extends losses, slides under $3500 to lowest since September 2017.

• Black Friday, Thanksgiving Day foot traffic dips as more shoppers flock to online deals.

• Black Friday shopping pulled in a record $6.22 billion in online sales: Adobe.

• US trade war with China won't be ending anytime soon, and concerns are growing: CNBC CFO survey.

• How to keep your kids safe from toys and apps that pry into their lives.

Zero Hedge:          

• San Ysidro Port Locked Down As Hundreds Of Migrants Rush US Border; Tear Gas Deployed.

• Visualizing What The Big Tech Companies Know About You.

• Ukraine To Impose Martial Law After Russia "Fires At Ukraine Ships", Seizes Three Vessels Off Crimea.

• Millennials Are Quickly Ditching City Life For Suburbs.

• Corporate Share Buybacks Looking Dumber By The Day.

• Luongo: Jumping The Global Warming Shark.

• EU, UK Approve Brexit Divorce Deal; Now Comes The Hard Part.

• MI6 Scrambling To Stop Trump From Releasing Classified Docs In Russia Probe.

• EU's TARGET2 Imbalances Are Rising Again. Goldman Fears Italy Capital Flight Looms.

• How A Fragile Euro May Not Survive The Next Crisis.

• Trump Strikes Deal With Mexico To End "Catch And Release", Make Asylum Seekers Wait In Mexico.

• Lawmakers Leak Plan For $3 Billion Pension-Fund Bailout.

• Cryptogeddon: Bitcoin Battered Below $4000 As Long Liquidations Continue.

• How Social Media Is Becoming An Arm Of The State.

• Has California's Green Ideology Left It Burning?

• Economic Turmoil Could Send Oil Even Lower.

• Five Colleges You're Probably Thankful Your Kids Don't Attend.

• Salvini Threatens To Collapse Italy's Government If Deficit Target Is Changed.

• "If He's So Good, Why Is This Happening?": Trump Reportedly Blames Mnuchin For Market Carnage.

Business Insider:

• Bitcoin crashes through $4,000.

Telegraph:

• The ailing eurozone is still hooked on quantitative easing.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Inventment Grade CDS Index 97.75 -1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.75 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.10 -.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.19%.

• S&P 500 futures +.27%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (DSX)/.04

• (JKS)/.15

• (PDCO)/.37

After the Close:

• (BKE)/.46

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October is estimated to rise to .18 versus .17 in September.

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for November is estimated to fall to 24.5 versus 29.4 in October.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Economic Survey, $39B 2Y T-Note auction, Citi Basic Materials Conference and the CSFB Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.