Sunday, October 11, 2020

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:              
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 38.75 -1.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.77 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 423.0 +21.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.10 +.26%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.31%.
  • S&P 500 futures unch.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Balance of Trade report and the Supreme Court Senate Confirmation Hearing could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:             
 Wall Street Journal:
 CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (CAT), (ROK), (ETN), (PWR), (AB), (UPS) and (WMT).
MarketWatch.com:    
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:

Friday, October 09, 2020

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,473.06 +3.77%





 


















 
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.  

Indices
  • DJIA 28,595.0 +3.1%
  • NASDAQ 11,560.22 +4.3%
  • Russell 2000 1,638.17 +6.4%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 44.65 +5.97%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 187.56 +6.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 35,686.03 +4.01%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,251.15 +4.01%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,217.64 +3.84%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 677.04 +2.80%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,310.52 -.37%
  • NYSE Technology 3,238.47 +4.99%
  • Transports 11,852.27 +4.71%
  • Utilities 874.68 +4.75%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 48.06 +4.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 45.75 +1.72%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,245.36 +.74%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 892.65 +.30%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 423,759 +1.43%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 480 +294
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -42.66 +3.2%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 461,911 -2.3%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,078,331 +2.45%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -15.7%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.96 -6.03%
  • ISE Sentiment 136.0 +24.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .90 +36.4
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 432.0 +437.0 points
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.1 -9.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.66 -24.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.60 -5.94%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.56 -.86%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,339.32 -1.24%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.382 Trillion -.49%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$7.212 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 34.74 +32.4%
  • AAII % Bears 39.0 -9.5%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 151.74 +5.37%
  • Crude Oil 40.50 +9.92%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 120.03 +7.66%
  • Natural Gas 2.75 +12.5%
  • Heating Oil 118.96 +10.1%
  • Gold 1,935.70 +1.50%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 186.86 +4.97%
  • Copper 307.85 +3.47%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 283.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.08%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 120.85 USD/Metric Tonne +3.73%
  • Lumber 557.30 -7.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 915.74 +3.11%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +35.30% +.7 percentage point
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 3.5% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 35.0% -15.0 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -4.18 +15.4%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 270.12 -24.6%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 157.53 +.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 149.9 -14.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.70 +8.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.90 -5.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 11/5
  • US Dollar Index 93.06 -.80%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,642.73 +.43%
  • Bitcoin/USD 11,063.73 +4.76%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.38 +1.22%
  • Yield Curve 62.5 +8.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield .77% +7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.035 Trillion +.28%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.81 -6.35%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 379.32 +.29%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 125.0 -7.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.75 -18.6%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 216.62 -12.5%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 50.47 -7.8%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.16 -8.2%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 99.0 -20.0%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.61 +.38%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73% +8.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 12.75 -1.75 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 +1.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 53.59 -9.94%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 515.0 -2.08%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.34 -10.75%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 200.08 -12.4%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 85.0 -5.5 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 67.56 +.84%
  • M1 Money Supply $5.511 Trillion -1.19%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 964.30 +2.0%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 857,000 -1.52%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 7.5% -60.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.75% -13.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 804,700 +4.56%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48.0 -1.3 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.9% +30.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.19/gallon unch.
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,970.0 -2.48%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,007.44 +2.23%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 117.72 +8.6%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 286,488 -2.60%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +6.8%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +3.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Alt Energy +12.1%
  • Semis +7.8%
  • Steel +7.4%
  • Networking +7.1%
  • Banks +6.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Foods +2.0% 
  • Social Media +2.0%
  • Restaurants +1.2%
  • REITs +1.1%
  • Gaming -7.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (21)
  • SPTN, XLNX, MATX, IPOB, LMND, BE, FEAC, LILAK, NTLA, TPTX, FSLY, LILA, SWTX, ICHR, CDNA, SSYS, LSCC, PACB, FHI, BG, LQDT and FSLR
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (3)
  • DPZ, CYTK and DKNG
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change