Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Vaccine Hopes, US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Energy/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.6 -.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,037.0 +115.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.87 +.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.13 +1.18%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation n/a

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .60 -15.5%

• NYSE Arms .74 -36.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.40 -2.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 706.06 -.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.60 -3.77%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 121.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.50 +.08%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 170.22 +.35%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.22 -.89%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 -.25 basis point.

• TED Spread 14.25 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.83 -.65%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 69.0 +2.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.46 USD/Metric Tonne -3.21%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 75.6 +7.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 102.8 -4.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 57.3 -.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.71 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +398 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -50 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On  gains in my industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.1% 2) Pharma -1.2% 3) Software -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FROG, TWST, WERN, KNX, SLP, SGEN, TTCF, QDEL, VERI, WMG, CAL, CALY, VIVO, NLS, KOD, ONEM, ROOT, AMWL, CODX, BHVN and PSNL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MAC 2) BLNK 3) DKS 4) XRT 5) BBY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CACC 2) PM 3) K 4) PACW 5) MTN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +6.9% 2) Alt Energy +6.0% 3) Energy +4.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CIIC, BLNK, RESI, SBE, M, BE, WLL, SDGR, FUBO, IMUX, UBA, MGNI, RIDE, RVP, SDC, ATUS, FLGT, SI, MAC, IHRT, PSXP, RAPT, GMHI, LGVW, CLDX, APPN, APLS, RMG, CREE, COMM and OMP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ACWI 2) CLNE 3) EHC 4) FIT 5) MDLZ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) IDEX 2) GPS 3) ROKU 4) ATUS 5) CF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.2% Above 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 75.1% of Issues Advancing, 22.8% Declining
• 164 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 79.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,010.0 +89.0 points
• Vix 23.9 +.6%
• Total Put/Call .59 -16.9%
• TRIN/Arms .97 -16.4%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• China Opens Its Bond Market—With Unknown Consequences for World.  
• Stocks Eke Out Gains; Pound Ticks Higher: Markets Wrap. Stocks began the week with little fanfare, edging higher across the Asia Pacific as traders monitored developments on progress toward a vaccine. The pound ticked up. South Korean equities nudged up as trade data provided room for encouragement amid the global pandemic. S&P 500 futures opened steady and Australian shares edged higher in early Monday trading as global equities remain within a whisker of the record high set earlier this month. Vaccinations against Covid-19 in the U.S. will “hopefully” start in less than three weeks, according to the head of the federal government’s program to accelerate a vaccine. Japan is shut for a holiday and Treasuries won’t trade until the London open. S&P 500 futures added 0.1% as of 9:06 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge fell 0.7% on Friday. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.5%. 
• Oil Holds Gains Near 12-Week High on U.S. Vaccination Optimism.
• Battered Active Managers See Salvation in Churning Stock Market.
• The 60/40 Portfolio Is Muzzling Critics With Another Big Year.
• ‘Big War’ in Bonds Escalates as Treasury Rift Puts Fed in Play.
• Chaos in Factor Land Puts Quants on Hunt for Accidental Exposure.  
• U.S. Plans First Vaccinations Next Month, Warp Speed Leader Says.  
• Boatloads of Cargo Off Los Angeles Grind Gears of World Economy.
• Pompeo Confirms U.S. Withdrawal From Open Skies Treaty.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Inauthenticity Behind Black Lives Matter.
• Companies Restart Dividends, Shedding Covid Cash Concerns.
• Trump Exits Open Skies Treaty, Moves to Discard Observation Planes.
• Covid Upends a Rural Hospital, Where Staff Know All the Patients.
• Georgia on Not Enough Minds.
• Why Some Tech Workers Leaving Silicon Valley Are Changing Jobs.
• U.S. Hospitalizations Hit Record High.
• Test Scores Drop in Math Since the Pandemic.
• The Price of Bad Polling.

Fox News:

• Flamethrowers, shootings, subway attacks – violent crime surges in the Big Apple.

CNBC:

• Singapore’s economy contracts 5.8% in the third quarter compared to a year ago.
• FDA authorizes Regeneron’s Covid treatment, taken by Trump, for emergency use.
• Game consoles may haul in $45 billion this year — and big changes are coming.
  

Zero Hedge: 

• China's Financial Distress Floods Shadow Banks As Trust Giant Scrambles For Liquidity.  
• "The Chips Will Fall Where They May": Sidney Powell Responds To Trump Distancing, Will Forge Ahead With Dominion Lawsuit.
• Do Trump Supporters Live In An Alternate Universe? T: This was a very clean and honest election. There is no evidence of fraud. Claims to the contrary are baseless conspiracy theories. D: There is massive evidence of election fraud of every type, including programmed computer cheating, dead people voting, and massive dumps of Biden votes in the middle of the night. There is also extremely strong statistical evidence of vote total manipulation.
• Trump Appeals PA Suit Dismissal As Dershowitz Outlines Narrow Path To Victory.
• Trump Campaign 'Clarifies' That Sidney Powell Isn't On Legal Team.
• LA County Orders Bars, Restaurants To Close As California Sees Record COVID Cases: Live Updates.
• More Than 2/3rds Of Americans Oppose Mandatory COVID-19 Vaccinations.
• A Realistic Primer On Georgia's Senate Runoffs.
• Top Biden Advisors Flournoy & Blinken Promise More Secretive 'Permanent War' Policy.
• Illinois Governor Pritzker Snubs Lori Lightfoot's "Do Not Travel" Advisory, May Leave Chicago For Thanksgiving.
• Pennsylvania Judge Throws Out Trump Campaign Lawsuit, Setting Stage For Supreme Court Showdown.
• The Global Cost Of The COVID Pandemic.
• European Leader Predicts COVID Hell Will Trigger Monumental "Populist Backlash".
• Lockdown Politics: The Great Travesty.
• The Triumph Of Mankind Over 'The Great Reset': Guns, Books, & The Social Contract.
• US Urgently Needs To Challenge China's Chokehold On Rare Earth Materials.
• Struggling Retailers Owe $52 Billion In Overdue Rents.
• Michigan AG Calls For Criminal Charges Against GOP Certifiers Who Won't 'Fall In Line'.
• Every Sheriff In LA Region Refuses To Enforce Gavin Newsom's COVID Curfew.

  MarketWatch.com:

• Guitar Center files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
  

NewsMax:

• Ronna McDaniel: GOP Must 'Run Down Every Single Irregularity'.
• Gohmert: Trump Building Case to Get to SCOTUS.
• Trump Appeals Rejection of Effort to Block Pennsylvania Vote.
• Trump: Biden Would 'Kill American Economy' in Rejoining Climate Treaty.
  

OANN:

• Bill Maher slams Democrats for hypocrisy on COVID-19 protocol.
• Sidney Powell: There’s lots of evidence of voter fraud.

@kylenabecker:

• Big Tech & Mainstream Media are 100% sure that it is *impossible* that the voting machines could be "hacked" or the election "rigged." WATCH what the same media said *before* the election.

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.0 +.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 33.25 +.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.27 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 919.0 -2.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.25 -.51%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%.
• S&P 500 futures +.28%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.3%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (KFY)/.06
• (WMG)/.04
  

After the Close:

• (A)/.93
• (AMBA)/.05
• (URBN)/.44
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Oct.

9:45 am EST

• The Markit US Manufacturing PMI report for Nov. is estimated to fall to 53.0 versus 53.4 in Oct.
• The Markit US Services PMI report for Nov. is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 56.9 in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report, UK PMI report and the 2/5Y T-Note auctions could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• China Is Set to Eclipse America as World’s Biggest Oil Refiner.
• Biggest African Economy Now In Recession as Oil Output Drops.
• Trump Tweets About Voter ‘Fraud’ During G-20 Opening Meeting.
• Republican Women Helped Chip Away Democratic House Majority. 
• U.S. Cases Pass 12 Million; California Hits Record: Virus Update.
• Pork Piles Up in Europe as Virus and Swine Fever Slash Sales.
  
• Virus Surge Threatens Newfound U.S. Corporate Profit Optimism.  
• Bitcoin Revival Unleashes Animal Spirits and $300,000 Forecast.  
• CDC Escalates Warning for Cruise Travel, Urging Avoidance.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Duo That Defeated the ‘Diversity Industry’.
• School’s Out for Autumn in New York.
• Many College Students Head Home Lacking Covid-19 Tests.
• Student Loan Losses Seen Exceeding $400 Billion.
• Walmart Heirs Back Startup Developing $10 At-Home Covid-19 Tests.
• Inside the French Hospital Hit Hardest by Covid-19.
• School’s Out for Autumn in New York.

CNBC: 

• Job loss fears amid lockdowns will hit holiday shopping sales, market researcher Jim Bianco warns.
• Tech companies are lining up to go public — what we learned from IPO filings.
• There are some under-the-radar hurdles that could trip up the stock market into year end.
• Boom times have returned for venture-backed start-ups, says co-founder of $3 billion fintech Brex.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (CFG), (HBAN), (FITB), (SNV), (TFC) and (SPG).
• Had bearish commentary on (BA).

Fox News:

• Spike in coronavirus cases fuels panic buying amid new lockdown restrictions.

Newsmax:

• Trump Lawyer to Newsmax TV: Pending Georgia Lawsuit 'Shocking'.
• Protests in Atlanta Over Election Results.
  

Zero Hedge:

• New Strains Of COVID Could Render Vaccines Completely Useless, And 2 Dangerous Mutations Are Already Spreading.
• Frustrated Biden Snaps At Reporter For Shouting Question About Coronavirus.
• California Reports Record Jump As US COVID-19 Cases Top 12 Million; NY Sees Most New Cases In Months: Live Updates.
• Why Is Challenging Suspicious Election Results "A Threat To Our Democracy"?
• Law Firm Withdraws From Representing Boockvar Against Trump Campaign's Pennsylvania Lawsuit.
• New York Times Job Listing Shows How Western Propaganda Operates.
• "We See Vulnerability": JPMorgan Estimates Up To $310 Billion In Forced Selling By Year-End.
• The "Global Reset" Scam.
• A Rude Awakening Coming To Europe.
• Government Spies Are Tracking Brits Movements To Check If They're Complying With Lockdown; Report.
• "Super Emitters": 1% Of People Cause Half Of Global Aviation Emissions.
• Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness Plan Is Idiotic And Immoral.
• Boston Dynamics' Robot Dog Starts New Work On BP Oil Rig.
• GOP Girds For "Election Fraud" Fights In Georgia Runoffs.
• America's Elites - Not Trump - Are Responsible For Undermining American Democracy.
• One In Five US Hospitals Are On The Verge Of A Staffing Crisis.
• The US Government Will Inflate To The Bitter End.
  

@kylenabecker:

• PA's official election website has *deleted* links to its open voting database. Unfortunately for them, some people have obtained the state's data. Such as Edward Solomon. He has found *disturbing* signs of statistically impossible patterns. Watch.
• More serious statistical anomalies in Pennsylvania. How can Trump *LOSE* votes in an election?

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).