Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 50.0% of Issues Advancing, 45.6% Declining
• 43 New 52-Week Highs, 79 New Lows
• 55.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,075.0 -30.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,428 +.53%
  
• Vix 19.6 +1.1%
• Total Put/Call .83 -1.2%
• TRIN/Arms .85 +37.1%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.0 +1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 49.5 +1.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.58 unch. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,148.0 +42.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +.67%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.29%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DE)/3.87
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 260K versus 268K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2030K versus 2080K the prior week.
• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Oct. is estimated at -$95.0B versus -$96.3B in Sept.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.4% gain in Sept.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.2% loss in Sept. 
• Durable Goods Orders for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in Sept.
• Durables Ex Transports for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in Sept.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• Personal Income for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -1.0% decline in Sept.
• Personal Spending for Oct. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.6% gain in Sept. 
• The PCE Core MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• New Home Sales for Oct. is estimated at 800K versus 800K in Sept.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC Meeting Minutes for Nov. 3rd.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone GDP report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Emerging Market Currency/Debt Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Alt Energy/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.1 +5.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,066.0 +128.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.54 +.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +7.4%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 unch.

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0  -21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 +7.6%

• NYSE Arms .70 +9.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.15 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 397.48 +.32%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.44 +3.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.46 +1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.37 +3.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.46 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -4.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 12.0 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.0 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.33 -2.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 104.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.20 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.1 -3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.7 +26.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.6 +.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 unch.
• 95.0% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 76.6% chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 203 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +2/100K people
• 38% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -184 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -67 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.7% 2) Gambling -2.6% 3) Software -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLAN, DKNG, OSTK, TRUP, ORMP, COOK, BMYQ, AVYA, DKS, PCOR, PX, TDOC, CRNC, PTC, TDUP, SNII, CBRL, GAN, MAX, PRVA, URBN, ZI, ASTS, ASTR, TIL, VERV, ALHC, BBY, ANF, ZM, AUR and LGVN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HPQ 2) GPS 3) BBY 4) DELL 5) ADSK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ZM 2) BBY 3) ZME 4) BBIG 5) URBN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.0% 2) Energy +2.9% 3) Banks +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DY, BTU, BURL, SITM, CLR, DLTR, NOV, OXY, EBS, COMM, MUR, APA, WDC, FLOW, MTDR, SJM, NOG, DVN, MRO, HFC, CVM, PXD, AEO, FANG, GFF, CBRE, RIOT, MARA, HAL, NVRO, MNRL and AIG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) COMM 2) URBN 3) DKS 4) VST 5) WMB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ISPC 2) AFFU 3) ICNB 4) TNXP 5) MOV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 40.4% of Issues Advancing, 55.8% Declining
• 40 New 52-Week Highs, 143 New Lows
• 54.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,064.0 +126.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,285 -1.4%
  
• Vix 20.1 +4.8%
• Total Put/Call .89 +12.7%
• TRIN/Arms .66 +3.1%