Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,342.70 -1.5%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Indices

• DJIA 34,152.28 -1.99%

• NASDAQ 13,590.72 -1.8%

• Russell 2000 2,011.37 -.8%

• S&P 500 High Beta 74.3 -1.4%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 236.06 -4.7%

• Wilshire 5000 44,195.83 -1.7%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,660.17 -1.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,590.29 -1.5%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 793.82 +1.0%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,342.42 +.18%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,662.14 -2.5%

• Transports 14,990.0 -.22%

• Utilities 914.88 -1.22%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 84.9 -4.6%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 48.68 -.5%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,478.06 +.44%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 927.11 -.32%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 469,061 -.52%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -366-65

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.1 +4.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 363,383 -1.5%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,170,681 +3.7%

• Total Put/Call 1.18 +2.7%

• OEX Put/Call 1.62 -6.4%

• ISE Sentiment 81.0 +1.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.22 +48.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,114.0 -534.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.86 -9.0%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 28.4 +2.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.7 +4.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.27 +3.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.98 -2.1%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,714.63 -3.0%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.590 Trillion -.95%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +27.305 Million

• AAII % Bulls 19.2 -21.3%

• AAII % Bears 43.2 +21.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 263.62 +.23%

• Crude Oil 91.61 -2.8%

• Reformulated Gasoline 267.75 -2.5%

• Natural Gas 4.43 +10.7%

• Heating Oil 278.95 -5.3% 
• Newcastle Coal 201.0 (1,000/metric ton) -6.1%
  

• Gold 1,895.03 +1.9%
• Silver 23.92 +1.5%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 540.0 +2.3%

• Copper 452.90 +2.1%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 505.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.9%

• China Iron Ore Spot 132.60 USD/Metric Tonne -9.2%

• Lumber 1,280.70 +5.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,450.09 +.13%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 655.0 USD/Short Ton +4.8%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.3% +.6 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.0% -.2 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 5.4 +1.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 312.88 -44.9%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.94 +.46%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.2 +16.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 42.8 -4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.5 +2.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 78.9%(+42.6 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point hike, 21.1%(-42.6 percentage points) chance of +50.0-75.0 basis point rate hike on 3/16

• US Dollar Index 96.07 unch.

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,728.44 +.28%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 40,166 -4.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.15 -.53%
  

• Yield Curve 50.25 -7.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.93% -2.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.873 Trillion +.37%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11.62 -.6%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 129.71 +8.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 156.0 -10.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.06 -1.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 227.84 -1.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.11 +.63%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.82 +.23%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 279.41 +26.5%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.4 -1.0%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44% -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 15.5 +8.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.75 -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.75 -3.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 68.86 +1.3%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 368.0 +1.75%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 78.82 +5.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 227.88 +3.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 102.25 +4.0 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.50 +.25 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.1 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,022.90 +.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 243,250 -4.1%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 31.7 -4.1% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 4.19% +21.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 537,000 -5.1%

• Weekly Retail Sales +14.3% -.9 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -12.4% +2.9 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $75.7M +64.2%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.53/gallon +.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,886 -4.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,587.91 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 158.61 +3.6%

• Rail Freight Carloads 268,025 +11.7%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 1,977,756 +28.9%
• US Covid-19:  258 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.0%(-12.0 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22  -214/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -56.0%(-12.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value unch.

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.4%
  

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +5.0%

• Networking +4.2%
  

• Road & Rail +3.3%

• Shipping +2.6%

• Airlines +1.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Biotech -2.8%
  

• Medical Equipment -3.0%

• Software -3.8%

• Energy -4.2%
  

• Digital Health -4.6%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• KPTI, AMLX, BLMN, COMM, RLGY, AL, CYXT, SUPN, BRCC and KRP
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (25)

• ALB, ATRA, VZIO, WRBY, TWLO, GE, INTC, TWKS, CE, PLTR, OSTK, CTKB, PPL, SPT, RBLX, CYH, PAY, PPC, BRZE, ASIX, DKNG, RDFN, BLZE and ROKU
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Russian/Ukraine War Fears, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Telecom/Medical Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.5 +1.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,100.0 -75.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.15 -.20%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 -1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.3 +2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.17 +10.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.12 -7.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.11 +2.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 431.29 +.76%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.71 +3.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.38 +.95%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.40 +2.99%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.35 +.32% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 901.33 +10.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.75 -1.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 15.0 +2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 -3.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  101.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.40 +.1%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.57 -.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .33% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 50.25 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 132.55 USD/Metric Tonne +3.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.2 +3.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 42.8 -2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.5 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 258 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -25/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -56.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -182 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 39.7% of Issues Advancing, 56.7% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 111 New Lows
• 44.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,099.0 -74.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,328.0 -.77%
  
• Vix 28.6 +1.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.09 +2.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.30 +7.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.25 +2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 54.0 +2.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.77 +.08%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,182.0 +9.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.2 -1.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.61%.

• S&P 500 futures +.39%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.45%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (B)/.46
• (BLMN)/.52
• (DE)/2.26
• (DKNG)/-.81
• (PPL)/.32
• (RRD)/.59
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Jan. is estimated to fall to 6.1M versus 6.18M in Dec.
• The Leading Index for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.8% gain in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Brainard speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Government funding deadline, Eurozone Construction Output and the (MAT) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine War Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.2 +7.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,307.0 -265.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.50 -.55%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 42.0 +6.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -42.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +10.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.09 -23.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.72 +2.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.16 +1.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.41 +2.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 160.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.44 +.39%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.90 +2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.28 -.06% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 901.33 +10.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 12.25 +5.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  100.0 +1.75 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.35 +.23%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.72 -.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 51.25 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.80 USD/Metric Tonne -6.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.9 +2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.0 +1.0 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.5 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 -3.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 283 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 17.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -27/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -56.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -173 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -55 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long