Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +6.6% 2) Semis +3.7% 3) Homebuilding +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GES, MU, GPCR, ARGX, FND, MSTR, GCT, AVGO, WOLF, RH, TILE, WDC, SGH, IMVT, RKT, WGO, LYFT, HRTG, SKYT, CLS, ARRY, VRT, ARHS, COIN, CDLX, ACMR, LNC, CMC, IOT, DBRG, BROS, GPS, OLLI, WSM, LRCX, GEO, Z, KMX, GTLB, ZG, GS, DHT, FAF, BMA, SIMO, DUOL, SNPS, DFH, BCC, HOOD, LNW, ONON, WAL, ATMU, MRVL, YPF, TNP, HAYW, BNTX, FRO, NBIX, NDAQ, APPN, DKNG, LOW, WOR, EURN, VST, RUN, MELI, DELL, EURN, KKR and PD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) OPK 2) EGY 3) FUSN 4) STWD 5) JCI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KAVL 2) GES 3) MU 4) ALAB 5) SCVL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US government funding deadline and the (AFRM) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 -1.0
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 68.9% of Issues Advancing, 29.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.50 +82.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$161.0M
  
• 391 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 63.4% (+2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 74.0 +7.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.2 -.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.6 +.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,232.9 +.23%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0 (Extreme Greed) +6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.9 -18.5%
  
• Vix 13.0 -.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -3.1%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.5 -3.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 70.0 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.93%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.5 +1.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.90%

• S&P 500 futures +.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Transport/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 +.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .48 -49.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.8 +.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.8 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 +1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.1 +1.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 156.0 +37.0
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -19.4%

• NYSE Arms .99 -23.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$102.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.2 (new series)
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 285.09 +.21%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 290 +26
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.79 (new series)
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 192.75 (new series)
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.6 (new series)
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 173.2 (new series)
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 122.2 (new series)
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 803.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.26%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.7 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.6 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.8 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.3 -1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 500 reporting) +16.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 249.21 +.11:  Growth Rate +11.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +55.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.45 +.28: Growth Rate +29.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.0 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.16 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.07 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -34.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.1% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 55.4% +3.7 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 70.9%(+17.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 49.6%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +343 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/transport/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -1.1% 2) Digital Health -.9% 3) Shipping -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NDAQ, CELC, HROW, EQIX, ATRC and SHC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ALIT 2) FUSN 3) GETY 4) ASO 5) GIS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SIG 2) SMCI 3) EQIX 4) EAF 5) HROW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume