Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 5,236.6 +2.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 39,591.1 +2.3%

• NASDAQ 16,431.1 +3.0%

• Russell 2000 2,074.4 +1.9%

• NYSE FANG+ 10,104.6 +4.4% 
• Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index 437.4 -.5%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 164.7 +2.4%

• Wilshire 5000 52,127.8 +2.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,412.3 +2.9%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,735.2 +1.8%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 807.4 +1.0%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.1 +1.5%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,839.4 +3.6%

• Transports 16,005.6 +3.3%

• Utilities 858.6 +1.0%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 100.6 +2.0%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.9 +.36%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 207.6 +1.9%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 109.1 +.03%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 496,339 +1.2%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.5 +46.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,800 +1,703
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -30.6 -2.6%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 233,788 -2.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,718,985 +4.7%

• Total Put/Call 1.33 +80.0%

• OEX Put/Call 2.34 +37.8%

• ISE Sentiment 128.0 -5.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.54 +59.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.6 +.7%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.19 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.02 -4.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -11.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .71 -11.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 11.9 -13.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.96 +5.8%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.90 +12.4%

• Smart Money Flow Index 16,137.0 +1.2%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  93.2 -11.6
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.047 Trillion -1.0%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$35.238 Million

• AAII % Bulls 43.2 -5.9%

• AAII % Bears 27.2 +24.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 72.0 (Greed) +2.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 285.76 +.68%

• Crude Oil 80.7/bbl. -.44%

• Reformulated Gasoline 273.70 +1.1%

• Natural Gas 1.65 -.24%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%
  

• Heating Oil 265.7 -2.6% 
• Newcastle Coal 124.6 (1,000/metric ton) -3.8%
  

• Gold 2,162.8 +.3%
• Silver 24.68 -2.0%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 425.7 -.9%

• Copper 400.7 -2.7%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 382.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.6 USD/Metric Tonne +4.4%

• CME Lumber  610.50 +1.1%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,503.8 +1.2%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 312.50 USD/Short Ton -.8%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +2.1% -.2 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.9% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.88 +17.5%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 82.6 -25.7%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(12 of 500 reporting) +40.7% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 249.49 +1.04:  Growth Rate +11.8% +.5 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.75 -6.06: Growth Rate +29.3% -2.6 percentage points, P/E 32.5 +1.5
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.6 +7.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.7 -4.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.2 -2.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 12.4%(+6.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 87.6%(-6.0 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 5/1
  

• US Dollar Index 104.5 +1.0%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,732.1 -.06%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 63,804.5 -6.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.5 +.9%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -38.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.22% -8.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.478 Trillion -.36% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.172 Billion -7.3%
• Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $150.183 Billion -10.3%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.7 +2.7%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 187.6 +1.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.8 +3.1%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.8 +1.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 135.6 +9.1%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 120.9 +4.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.6 +7.8%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.2%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 89.84 +.53%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.6% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.2% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.5% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% +4.0 basis points
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.08% +1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 6.5 basis points -1.75 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.1 +4.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 134.0 +.49% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 290.0 +28.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 64.97 +8.6%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 192.1 +6.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 168.6 +1.4%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 141.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 785.0 -25.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .62 +1.0 basis point
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -2.0% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,329.1B +2.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 211,250 +1.2%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.6 -3.7%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.12% +3.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 198,200 -1.6%

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.2% +20.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -4.0% unch.
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $172.4M +57.0%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.53/gallon +.09/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,240.0 unch.
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,009.7/40 ft Box -4.8%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,244.8 -2.6%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 unch.
  
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 54.33 -.15%

• Rail Freight Carloads 255,010 -1.2%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,677,627 +11.4%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.9%
  

Worst Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Growth +1.3%

Leading Sectors

• Homebuilding +6.0%

• Disk Drives +4.9%
• Gambling +4.2%
  

• Banks +4.0%
  

• Construction +3.8%
  

Lagging Sectors

• REITs -.1%
  

• Telecom -.4%
  

• Gold & Silver -.7%

• Computer Services -.9%
  

• Shipping -.9%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (18)

• PHAT, WS, CDLX, HROW, YOU, ERJ, FDX, STVN, MYE, EH, URGN, AY, DBI, DFH, ATMU and AES
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• FIVE, PZZA, TMDX, ZGN, EPAM, NKE, ACIC, NMRA, AIR, BROS, LULU and TRML
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to -.34 versus -.3 in Jan.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to rise to 680K versus 661K in Jan.

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for March is estimated to fall to -13.0 versus -11.3 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Bloomberg March US Economic Survey, 2Y T-Note auction, Wells Fargo Clean Energy Symposium and the TD Engineering/Construction Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -19.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.4 +1.0
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 35.2% of Issues Advancing, 62.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.78 +50.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$39.8M
  
• 185 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 63.0% (-.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 69.0 -5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.5 -1.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.1 -.39%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,177.6 +.21%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 72.0 (Greed) -4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.9 -16.3%
  
• Vix 13.0 +.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 -1.0%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.75 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 67.0 -3.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.94%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 -.14%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.3 +1.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 -.05%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.24%

• S&P 500 futures +.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.0 -.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .76 +59.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.2 -.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.7 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.9 -4.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 144.0 +41.0
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -5.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.42 +73.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$145.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.9 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 276.3 -2.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 288 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.4 -3.6%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 187.27 -2.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 127.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.8 -3.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 166.5 -2.6%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 119.96 -1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 -.16%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 142.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 787.0 -16.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.4%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.4 euros/megawatt-hour -4.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.8 +7.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -13.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.5 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 500 reporting) +50.8% +34.3 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 249.32 +.11:  Growth Rate +11.7% unch., P/E 21.1 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.73 +.28: Growth Rate +29.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.7
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.18 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -36.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.1% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 57.9% +2.5 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 69.6%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 49.7%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +40 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +272 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/transport/tech/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -.9% 2) Telecom -.5% 3) Restaurants -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SHC, PZZA, CHWY, DRI, ASO, FDS, TBBK, SCS, DBI, FIVE and TRML
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWG 2) GOEV 3) ACN 4) DWAC 5) FUSN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APYX 2) CATO 3) DBI 4) LI 5) AAPL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume