Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BMO)/2.03
  

After the Close: 

• (BOX)/.36
• (CAVA)/.04
• (APPS)/.07
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The 1Q House Price Purchase Index QoQ.
• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.2% gain in Feb.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May is estimated to fall to 96.0 versus 97.0 in April.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for May.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, 2/5Y T-Note auctions, M2 Money Supply report, (MRK) annual meeting, Leerink Healthcare Conference, Cowen Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Jefferies Software Conference, KeyBanc Industrials/Basic Materials Conference and the Craig Hallum Investor Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -25.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.7 +.1
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 72.5% of Issues Advancing, 25.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.10 -5.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$202.8M
  
• 80 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 59.0% (+2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.5 -1.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 237.5 +.26%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,590.7 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 54.0 (Neutral) -4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.3 -28.9%
  
• Vix 12.2 -4.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 +10.0%

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @JDunlap1974

• ELECTION FRAUD. BREAKING: President Trump has released summaries of 2020 election fraud in Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. (pics)
  

• @newstart_2024

• Alex Newman and Glenn Beck: "They want a system where food is entirely controlled and entirely centralized, literally from the seed. They actually want to patent the DNA of the seeds and the livestock for every organism that we eat. And they're working on that. Bill Gates said his dad was a patent attorney. They understood early on that controlling the intellectual property, controlling the food and the energy is the way to control humanity. (video)
• Great Prophet Fauci gives commencement speech at Columbia University and warns medical graduates of conspiracy theories and and anti-science rhetoric. He calls for pushback against 'untruth' while ignoring his own lies. (video)
  

• @wideawake_media

• Climate change activist Taylor Swift sent her private jet from Sydney to Hawaii to pick up her boyfriend and bring him back to Australia, emitting approximately 58 metric tonnes of CO2—the same amount of CO2 emitted by 4,625 cars in a day. (video)
• "It's safe. It's effective. This vaccine is tailored for kids." Remember when Obama and Fauci visited schools urging parents to get their children injected with the insufficiently tested mRNA injections? "Come on down and find a spot to get vaccinated... Make sure to do it for your kids, your entire family, as well as for the community at large." (video)
• A powerful compilation of the brazen lies and contradictions pushed by Anthony Fauci since the start of the "pandemic". (video)
• "If you give up your freedom for security, you're going to end up with neither." Award-winning journalist, Alex Newman, on how unelected globalists fabricate crises—from economic crises, to border crises, to war—as a means of seizing power and control. (video)

• @robbystarbuck

• Something Democrats wildly miscalculated on is the trans push. Latinos and Blacks want no part of their agenda to sexualize kids and make everything a pride logo. These are the conversations happening all over America. (video)

• @GLNoronha

• Read this letter. Whistleblowers’ emails reveal John Kerry blocked the FBI and DOJ from arresting Iranian terrorists and agents on U.S. soil in order to protect his Iran deal. He even ran away from a White House meeting to avoid getting confronted by the Attorney General. (pic)

•  @BillAckman

• What has happened to America? When did our judges lose all of their judgment? How is it that far left wing ideologies have overtaken basic common sense and judgment? How did this happen? How did I not see this happening? (video)

• @JamesMelville

• The methane myth debunked by this farmer: “The biggest lie in the world right now is that cows are killing the planet. At the core of that lie is how methane is calculated.” (video)
  

• @EndWokeness

• THIS IS TERRIFYING. BUCKLE UP: Bill Melugin went down to go observe the situation at the U.S. border in California. NOT A SINGLE INVADER is from Mexico. Military-age men from Iran, China, India, Pakistan were all lining up in the area. Oftentimes, they hide/discard their IDs. (video)

• @WallStreetApes 

• Next Time You Think “The US Government Wouldn’t Do That” Bookmark This Video & Come Back To It. Freedom of Information Act documents show US Military conducted secret tests on American Citizens by spraying chemicals from planes and attaching chemical sprayers on buildings and stations wagons to force Americans to breath in zinc cadmium sulfide with radioactive particles. (video)

• @kylenabecker
  

• The 'Experts' are Slowly Walking Back the Big Lies Told to Americans During the Covid Pandemic. “The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.” ― George Orwell, 1984.

• @TonySeruga
  

• While the media is spinning one distraction after another… Dominion has finally authenticated ALL of the data released by Barry County's Sheriff Dar Leaf... IN COURT! Here are two of the biggest truths being confirmed and exposed: 1) Dominion machines are designed to connect to the internet! 2) They employ Serbian developers and do not subject them to background checks.

• @MarioNawful

• INSURANCE DRONES SPIED ON HOMES, DROPPED POLICIES OVER UNANNOUNCED INSPECTIONS. Homeowners nationwide reported sudden policy cancellations after insurers captured aerial images with drones, manned planes, and high-altitude balloons, revealing issues like debris, drained pools, or moss on roofs.
• FORMER NAVY SEAL: IN 10 YEARS, DRONES COULD HUNT PEOPLE DOWN WITH FACIAL RECOGNITION. Tucker: "In 10 years, what will drones be able to do?" Former Navy Seal Erik Prince: “You could load a face, and between network surveillance and the facial recognition of that drone, find one person and fly it into their head. Privacy is really under attack with data being constantly collected from street cameras, doorbell cameras, and airport facial recognition.” (video)
  

• @amuse

• ELECTION FRAUD: Fulton County Georgia provided more than 250 ACLU members full read/write access to Georgia's voter registration database prior to the 2020 election. Members of the ACLU can STILL register anyone to vote including dead people & illegal aliens.

• @JunkScience
  

• Communist China cynically uses the climate hoax to destroy the European car industry: "Electric vehicles are very important for positive development of the environment, they should never be used as a political target," CEO William Li told reporters as NIO opened its first showroom in Amsterdam.
  

• @WallStreetSilv

• Hmmm ... I wonder what it could be ... (pic)
  

• @songpinganq

• Based on how much loyalty the families have for Chinese government, Chinese families are divided into six social credit ratings, 'AAA', 'AA', 'A', 'B', 'C', and 'D'. You and your family's morality, interpersonal relation, conduct or behavior etc all could affect this rating. (video)

• @aaronsibarium

• SCOOP: Whistleblowers at UCLA medical school say it has dramatically lowered admissions standards for minority applicants. As a result, they say, 50% of some cohorts now fail basic tests of medical competence. We've obtained shocking internal data. (graph)
  

•  @LaraLogan

• The people have had enough of the political elites pushing their mass delusion on the world & expecting them to go along with it. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,010,545 Reports(+992 from prior report) Through April 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.25 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.0 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 119.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.5 +1.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.9 -.04%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Falling Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Rising Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Alt Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(478 of 500 reporting) +7.7% +2.8 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 256.29 +.25:  Growth Rate +12.4% unch., P/E 20.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% +15.7 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 328.54 +.16: Growth Rate +22.5% -14.2%, P/E 32.2 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 +17.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .97 +4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.6% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 46.8% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 88.9%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 48.4%(+6.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -598 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -70 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -55 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my financial/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BAH)/1.23
• (BKE)/.74
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for April is estimated to fall -.8% versus a +2.6% gain in March.
• Durables Ex Transports for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in March. 
• Cap Goods Shipments Non-Defense Ex Air for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for May.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q update, Bloomberg May US Economic Survey, weekly US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the (PWR) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.6 -1.0
  
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 21.1% of Issues Advancing, 76.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.07 +39.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$130.4M
  
• 71 New 52-Week Highs, 58 New Lows
• 60.0% (-3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.0 -8.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.7 +2.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.4 +.19%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,592.7 +1.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 58.0 (Greed) -3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.9 -38.8%
  
• Vix 12.2 -.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 +3.8%