Stocks Finishing Lower on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Tech/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 -2.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .96 +22.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.2 -.17%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 185.86 -.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.9 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.17 -2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 155.0 +36.0
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -13.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.19 +20.20%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$18.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 259.34 +.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 262 -1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.8 -.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.3 -.07%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.7 +3.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.2 -1.8%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 126.6 +.29%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 +.31%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 142.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 733.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 56.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.2 euros/megawatt-hour +3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.1 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.6 +1.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(487 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 257.48 +.14:  Growth Rate +12.9% unch., P/E 20.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 329.28 +.45: Growth Rate +22.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.8 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .85 -17.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.5% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.5% -.5 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 86.8%(unch.) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.0%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +180 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my financial/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -3.8% 2) Internet -2.7% 3) Cyber Security -2.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ADSK, HESM, DELL, SAP, INTU, DG, OKTA, AEO, NET, A, HRL, BRKR, IMVT, NOW, BBW, CRM, NTNX, KSS and PATH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MAXN 2) CRM 3) HPE 4) IGV 5) HPQ
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CRM 2) KSS 3) PATH 4) NTNX 5) BBW
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) SMH 3) XLV 4) KBE 5) LIT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.9% 2) Telecom +2.5% 3) Regional Banks +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CRDO, AI, FL, BURL, HPQ, FWRD, AMSC, BBY, BIRK, USM, BBAR, LTH, CAVA, INSM, SRPT, DQ, GGAL, TGS, CELC, BE, AAP, BMA, MRUS, ORN, WHR, LPG, DEC, BHVN, LEG, SVV, HIMS, ACHC, TDS, ICLR, JANX, CBRL, PETQ, HOOD, LEU, GLW, ATHM, VIST, OZK, HG, SONY and GPS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CRM 2) MAXN 3) HPQ 4) AEM 5) D

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CRDO 2) AI 3) BURL 4) FL 5) HPQ
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) XLY 3) IBB 4) ITB 5) XOP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GCO)/-2.66

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in March.
• Personal Spending for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.8% gain in March.
• The PCE Core MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in March.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for May is estimated to rise to 41.1 versus 37.9 in April.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Dallas Fed PCE for April, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, US Baker Hughes Rig Count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports, American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting, Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, (AMGN) annual  meeting, (GES) annual meeting and the (LOW) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.1 +1.5
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 78.0% of Issues Advancing, 20.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.24 +25.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$75.4M
  
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 57.2% (+3.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.0 +2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.8 -.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.8 -.26%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,715.8 -1.15%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 48.0 (Neutral) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.9 -9.6%
  
• Vix 13.8 -3.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -14.3%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @libsoftiktok
  

• Boston Mayor @wutrain said she would support a policy that refuses to prosecute the following crimes:

• @Brreaking911

• OUTRAGEOUS: Judge in Trump case tells jurors they could be split ‘4-4-4,’ and he will still treat them as unanimous verdicts. (video)

• @wideawake_media

• Prince Philip: The rising human population is the biggest threat to conservation. Interviewer: "And do you have views about what should be done about that?" Prince Philip: "Can’t you guess?" Remember, this is the man who said—in a 1988 interview with Deutsche Presse-Agentur: "In the event that I am reincarnated, I would like to return as a deadly virus, to contribute something to solving overpopulation." He also told People Magazine: "Human population growth is probably the single most serious long-term threat to survival. (video)
• According to Jordan Peterson, climate science is "an appalling scam". "We're essentially in a CO2 drought by historical standards... We were almost at the point where the plants were going to start to die." "Now they have been increasing... The major consequences is that the planet is 20% greener than it was in the year 2000... Crop yield has gone up 13%." (video)

• @TheInsidePaper
  

• NEW: Children's products sold by the Chinese-founded online shopping giant Shein contained toxic substances in amounts hundreds of times above acceptable levels.

•  @JimFergusonUK

• MSM Silent As Court Holds PCR Covid Tests 97% Inaccurate - Unfit for Purpose. The main stream media (MSM) in Europe and the US is deathly silent as a court determines the PCR test legally useless to test for Covid. The Landmark legal ruling finds that Covid tests are not fit for purpose. So what does the MSM do? They ignore it.

• @VigilantFox

• Tucker Carlson Goes Viral With One Simple Health Question. He asks, “in what world” are we not allowed to ask about vaccines and autism? “They’re forcing your kids to take this stuff.” Renowned cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough recently reported that “five studies now show” that “children who take no vaccines” are “healthier than the kids who take the vaccines.” He says unvaccinated kids have lower rates of: (video)

• @WallStreetApes 

• WOW! American Elections Are SO RIGGED. District of Columbia, Washington DC, “Non citizen voting education virtual training.” “This is by the Board of Elections in the District of Columbia.” “Illegal aliens and other noncitizens can vote” You can “Register to vote same day for early voting or primary election” “Non citizen voting education virtual training. Did you guys know this is a thing? District of Columbia Board of Elections, April 10, 2024. Again, this is by the Board of Elections in the District of Columbia. Who are we? (video)

• @StayFreeSpaces
  

• I just told a local farmers wife to not let any authorities test their Livestock for Bird Flu. You should too. WHY? Because the bird flu will be on the end of the PCR test they ram up their nose to their brain. They will immediately say, Yes, your livestock have bird flu, you need to:

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• Bird Flu!! Reports from Iowa that millions of chickens will need to be slaughtered as cases of Bird Flu have been found. This comes as there is already a push to vaccinate agricultural workers - not just in America but a number of countries. It appears the Globalists have decided to push the Bird Flu narrative - you can imagine what comes next - the culling of tens of millions of animals & a push to vaccinate everyone possible.
  

• @WallStreetSilv

• More taxes are coming to California... Now you will be taxed for EVERY mile you drive... Will we even have car ownership by 2030?

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,010,545 Reports(+992 from prior report) Through April 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.5 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.25 +1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 118.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.41%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.7 +2.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 +1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.18%.

• S&P 500 futures -.33%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.40%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modesty lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.