BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, September 18, 2026

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 12:23 PM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

None of note

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to -.06 versus -.08 in July.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, BofA Healthcare Conference, Precious Metals Summit and the ROSCon Global Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:26 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are +.25 to +1.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 -1.0 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 33.0 -.5 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 97.50 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%.
Crude Oil 101.4/bbl. -.5%.
Gold 4,386.3 USD/t oz. -.28%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.12 -.12%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.0 -.02%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 131.1 -.2%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.94% +1.0 basis point.
Japan 30-Year Yield 4.04% -4.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +.2%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.47%.
S&P 500 futures -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and biotech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 10:30 PM

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 -2.5%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.5 +2.7%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .37 unch.
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.01 -1.0 basis point
European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.1 -2.0%
Emerging Market CDS Index 139.2 -1.9%
Israel Sovereign CDS 53.7 -1.8%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.8 +1.0

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.2 +3.3

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 66.5 -.6

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.3 +.7
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +19.8% -5.1 percentage points
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.50 +.22: Growth Rate +22.4% unch., P/E 19.0 +.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.27% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 983.40 +2.40: Growth Rate +46.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.2
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.22 +2.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 26.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.1 +1.8%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 78.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.9 -1.1 percentage points
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.1% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.93% -9.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +2.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 48.5% (-1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 42.6%(unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:01 PM

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Gambling -1.4% 2) Insurance -.3% 3) Construction -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

CBIO, NSIT, NVST, BLDR, ATRO, ASND, ASTH, BBNX, KIDS, IMXI, LAD, CRWV, REAX, JXN, MTZ, SWMR, TTAN, SAH, AN and DSP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) SPXS 2) GNRC 3) ARKG 4) TMUS 5) AS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) DVLT 2) BBNX 3) INV 4) CAR 5) SMPL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) XLF 2) XLE 3) KRE 4) IYF 5) XLU

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:52 PM

Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Growth +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Computer Hardware +4.3% 2) Space +4.1% 3) Semis +3.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

GNRC, SDGR, VICR, ELMT, TEM, OKLO, ARCT, XE, SCTX, PRE, BHVN, VITL, TWST, SMCI, PSIX, PURR, INIO, MASS, BRUN, INTC, CAI, IONQ, ABCL, SITM, APLD, QBTS, TSEM, PBLS, CRSP, NTLA, TH, NVAX, LPTH, CROX, HNRG, LEU, NEXA, VERA, EROC, CMPS, FRNM, IPX, SMTC, HYMC, ALMR, FPS, MGNI, GENB, AMD, GFS, ODD, BEAM, ILMN, CRESY, AYA, BMNR, ZGN, GRAL, MARA, HL, RKLB, GFL, ASST, HSHP, FSLR, OMER, RDWR, HAWK, CMBT, SSMR, SHIP, STNG, CEPU, EGO, BURL, DRTS, CRVS, COIN, CIEN, DELL, AUGO, YETI, HMY, IP, NVO, INGM, ECAT, HMY, NOK, AUGO, FTRE, ZTO, CRDO, IOVA, ETN, LUV, ETN, GBDC, STOK, ENVA, MBX, IOVA and PUBM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) JETS 2) GNRC 3) SECZ 4) USAS 5) XRT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) GNRC 2) SECZ 3) DOMH 4) VITL 5) ATCH

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) SMH 2) ARKK 3) XAR 4) RSPT 5) VIS