Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg. 
• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as US election uncertainties/Biden tax hike proposals, global 2nd wave coronavirus fears and global recession worries offset yen weakness, short-covering and technical buying. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving bearish signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• U.S. Puts Export Curbs on Chinese Chipmaker SMIC, FT Says. 
• Thousands Protest Virus Restrictions in London as Cases Surge.  
• European Bond Market May Look to ECB for Help Amid Supply Risks.
• S&P 500’s Fourth Week of Losses Sounds Alarm on Economic Growth.
• Every Day-Trader Dollar Is Worth Five in a New Theory on Stocks.
• New York Cases Top 1,000, First Time Since June: Virus Update.
• Covid Immunity Remains Low With Under 10% of U.S. Adults Exposed.  
• Boeing Prepares Deeper Cuts From Executive Ranks to Real Estate.
• Early Covid Treatments Could Be ‘Bridge’ to Vaccine, Fauci Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• TikTok’s Fate Coming to a Head.
• Trump Set to Announce Nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for Supreme Court.
• On Being Black and Conservative.
• The FBI’s Bad Intelligence.
• Is It Insane to Start a Business During Coronavirus? Millions of Americans Don’t Think So.
• More Homes Are Going Dark as Moratoriums on Utility Shut-Offs End.
• Everybody Vs. the App Store: Why Companies Are Taking Issue With Apple’s Growing Revenue Engine.
• U.S. Sets Export Controls on China’s Top Chip Maker.
• Senate Republicans plan rapid confirmation just weeks before election.
• Nominee’s Views, Opinions and Experience.
• California’s Electric Autopia.
• IPO Market Parties Like It’s 1999.
• Devon Energy, WPX in Talks to Merge.

CNBC:

• A SCOTUS confirmation before Election Day would not be unprecedented.  
• ‘Dumb money’ is fueling one of the biggest lies on Wall Street, researcher says.
• American Airlines secures $5.5 billion Treasury loan, could tap more.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (NVAX), (BDX), (DHR), (WST), (MASI), (MRK), (LLY), (REGN), (FTV), (TFC), (WDC), (ABBV), (DKNG), (FGEN), (ALLO), (PLRX), (RVMD) and (MDT).

MarketWatch.com:    

• FDA to TikTok teens: the ‘Benadryl Challenge’ can kill you.
  
• Online marketplace Poshmark confidentially files for IPO.
  
• Wall Street’s biggest 5 stocks by value are on track for their worst month ever.  
• What stock-market investors will be watching for in first Trump-Biden debate.  
• When is the first Trump and Biden debate?

Fox News:

• Where Barrett stands on several important issues.
• Hunter Biden paid women with prostitution, trafficking ties: GOP report.
• Louisville officer who ripped BLM, Antifa relieved of duty.
• President announces Amy Coney Barrett as pick for Supreme Court seat.
  

Zero Hedge:  

• Beijing On Edge: China's 2nd Largest Property Developer Plummets Amid Fears Of Imminent Liquidity Crisis.
• Trump Unveils "Platinum Plan" For Black Americans, Designates Antifa, KKK As "Terrorist Organizations".
• New York Suffers Most New COVID-19 Cases Since June As US Outbreak Accelerates: Live Updates.
• Amy Coney Barrett Picked By Trump As U.S. Supreme Court Nominee.
• "Really, Really Catholic" Amy Coney Barrett Responds To Anti-Religious Bigotry.
• Bank of America Issues $2 Billion Bond To Fight "Race Inequality".
• The Supply Chain Is Broken And Food Shortages Are Here.
• In Unprecedented Reversal, Nasdaq Shorts Hit Second Highest Ever.
• German Minister Admits Lockdown Will Kill More Than COVID-19 Does.
• Complaining About The Transition Integrity Project's Election-Theft Plan Can Be Dangerous.
• Breakthrough Research On Severe COVID-19 Infections Opens Door To New Treatment.
• "I'm Doing Fine" - Ron Paul Tweets From Hospital After Suffering Apparent Stroke During Live Stream.
• Chinese Container Factories Are Now Sold Out Until February.
• 10 Most Extreme Examples Of Anti-American Sentiment At US Colleges (& How Trump's 1776 Commission Could Reverse It).
• The Inconvenience Of Freedom.
• Video Surfaces Of Biden Calling Troops "Stupid Bastards" When They Won't Clap.
• World War II Memorial 'Cancelled' For Being 'Too White'... And Other Absurdities.
• China Will "Definitely Start A Just War" If US Troops Return To Taiwan: State Media.
• "Massive Corruption By The Obama-Biden Administration": Flynn Family Responds To FBI Text Message Revelations.
• American Airlines Gets Upsized $5.5 Billion Loan From US Treasury, Averting 19,000 Furloughs.
• Amazon's In-Home Security Drone Is Company's "Most Chilling Surveillance Product" Yet.
• LA Driver Crossing BLM Protest Gets Chased, Beaten And Arrested On Live TV.
• BLM Stealth-Edits Website Amid Marxist Blowback, Plunge In Americans' Support.
• Dow Suffers Worst Week Since June As Dollar Surges Most In Six Months.

Business Insider:

• Nikola is 'a broken stock' and could lose another 75%, one strategist says.
  

The Epoch Times:

• Australian Think Tank Finds 380 Detention Camps in Xinjiang.
• How Beijing Grooms Teachers to Spread Propaganda Through Confucius Institutes.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,285.39 -1.60%

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.  

Indices

• DJIA 27,075.10 -2.59%

• NASDAQ 10,867.60 +.16%

• Russell 2000 1,471.22 -4.65%

• S&P 500 High Beta 40.58 -7.3%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 168.56 -4.2%

• Wilshire 5000 33,498.06 -1.67%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,127.59 +.28%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,145.81 -3.57%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 646.11 -1.03%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,295.41 +.92%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,016.85 -.44%

• Transports 11,262.31 -1.62%

• Utilities 804.09 +.41%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 43.87 -8.0%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.90 -4.24%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,225.26 -.47%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 889.04 -1.17%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 412,741 -1.65%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -247 -372

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -42.99 +5.43%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 449,744 +.08%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,108,987 +3.05%

• Total Put/Call .90 -5.4%

• OEX Put/Call 1.40 -13.2%

• ISE Sentiment 97.0 -15.0 points

• NYSE Arms 1.63 +154.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 40.0 -139.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 26.87 -5.75%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.71 +11.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.82 +1.26%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.17 +7.7%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,465.93 -1.83%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.414 Trillion -.05%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$9.266 Million

• AAII % Bulls 24.9 -22.3%

• AAII % Bears 46.0 +13.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 148.33 -2.09%

• Crude Oil 40.12 -1.78%

• Reformulated Gasoline 120.82 -2.18%

• Natural Gas 2.25 +7.58%

• Heating Oil 112.03 -2.97%

• Gold 1,857.20 -4.77%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 180.22 -4.1%

• Copper 296.70 -4.4%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 295.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.95%

• Lumber 607.60 +5.01%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 876.85 -2.14%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +32.0% unch.
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 3.0% +.7 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 100.0% unch.

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -4.5 +23.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 258.9 +37.7%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 155.88 +.33%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 170.4 -2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.8 -21.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.5 +.2 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 11/5

• US Dollar Index 94.70 +1.79%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,626.79 -1.39%

• Bitcoin/USD 10,666.17 -2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.22 -.88%

• Yield Curve 54.0 -.5 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield .66% -3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.053 Trillion +.41%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.0 +.25%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 329.78 +7.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 142.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.0 +41.1% (new series)
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 251.75 +24.3%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 57.76 +8.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.28 +22.5%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 130.87 +25.3%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.16 +.11%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58% -9.0 basis points

• TED Spread 14.25 -.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 59.75 -15.96%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 507.0 +5.95%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 81.89 +32.8%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 241.16 +34.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 94.75 -.75 basis point
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 66.31 -1.03%

• M1 Money Supply $5.574 Trillion +3.2%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 985.5 +.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 878,250 -3.86%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 8.6% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.90% +3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 808.50 +6.77%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.8 +2.1 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +.1% +70.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.19/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,605.0 +23.8%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,007.44 +2.23%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 -12.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 104.31 +8.2%

• Rail Freight Carloads 295,269 +13.3%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -6.2%

Leading Sectors

• Software +2.4%

• Internet +1.8%

• Utilities +.4%

• Semis +.2%

• Education unch.

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -7.4% 

• Steel -8.6%

• Airlines -9.0%

• Energy -9.5%

• Oil Service -17.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• ZI, PTON, NTRA, MDB, ZM, SGMS, SLP, NLS, EXAS and OMI
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (5)

• COWN, OXY, SLB, APA and RETA
  

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

 

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Vacccine Hopes, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Gaming/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.09 -5.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 25.0 +34.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.21 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.17 +.08%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.44 -1.27%

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +3.2 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -13.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.51 +137.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.41 +2.11%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 887.99 +.69%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.64 +2.56%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 142.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 +2.46%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 239.98 -.86%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.16 -.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 unch.

• TED Spread 14.25 +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  94.5 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.25 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.10 -.51%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 54.0 +.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.80 USD/Metric Tonne +.54%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 170.4 -1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.80 +2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.5 +1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -82 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +24 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long