Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 5,260.8 +.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 39,832.8 +.12%

• NASDAQ 16,396.8 +.01%

• Russell 2000 2,123.8 +1.2%

• NYSE FANG+ 10,021.9 -.3% 
• Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index 449.3 +.3%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 168.89 +1.3%

• Wilshire 5000 52,484.4 +.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,399.47 -.4%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,767.3 +1.2%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 815.1 +.40%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.0-4.7%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,807.9 -.8%

• Transports 16,251.0 +1.4%

• Utilities 882.6 +2.7%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 101.7 +1.1%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.2 +.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 208.3 +.34%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 109.4 +.25%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 496,601 +.38%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 -1.0%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 913 -887
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.2 -14.8%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 277,757 +18.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,713,716 -.31%

• Total Put/Call 1.28 +40.8%

• OEX Put/Call 1.89 -12.2%

• ISE Sentiment 127.0 -1.0 point
  

• NYSE Arms .89 -24.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.2 -2.0%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.12 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 12.9 +1.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .33 -53.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 15.0 +26.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.6 +2.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.5 +.9%

• Smart Money Flow Index 16,137.0 +1.2%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  103.9 +10.7
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.047 Trillionn/a

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$1.867 Million

• AAII % Bulls 50.0 +15.7%

• AAII % Bears 22.4 -17.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 70.0 (Greed) -2.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 286.76 +.07%

• Crude Oil 83.0/bbl. +2.7%

• Reformulated Gasoline 276.1 +1.3%

• Natural Gas 1.75 +3.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.6%
  

• Heating Oil 261.6 -1.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 131.1 (1,000/metric ton) +4.9%
  

• Gold 2,219.5 +1.9%
• Silver 24.81 +.57%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 419.4 -1.5%

• Copper 401.05 -1.3%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 385.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.7 USD/Metric Tonne -6.7%

• CME Lumber  585.5 -3.8%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,522.7 +.9%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 312.50 USD/Short Ton -.8%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +2.1% unch.
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.6% -.3 percentage point
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.78 +20.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 44.0 -40.9%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +43.6% +2.9 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.09 +.60:  Growth Rate +12.1% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.60 +.85: Growth Rate +29.7% +.4 percentage points, P/E 32.2 -.3
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.5 -2.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 42.8 -3.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +2.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 7.1%(-4.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 92.9%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 5/1
  

• US Dollar Index 104.5 +.5%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,724.5 -.44%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 70,901.3 +9.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.4 -.66%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -42.5 -4.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.20% -2.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.478 Trillion n/a
  
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.172 Billion n/a
• Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $150.183 Billion n/a
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.6 +2.6%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 188.2 -.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 138.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.2 -8.9%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.7 +4.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 137.4 +3.3%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 118.15 -1.5%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.2 +5.9%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 unch.
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 90.9 +1.2%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.6% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.2% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.5% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% +4.0 basis points
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.96% -12.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 3.25 basis points -3.25 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.25 +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -1.0 basis point
  

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.5 +1.2%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 125.0 -7.8% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 287.0 -3.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 63.1 +1.2%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 184.8 -1.3%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 168.5 +1.2%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 785.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .61 -1.0 basis point
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -1.7% +30.0 basis points
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,329.1B n/a

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 211,000 -.35%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.3 +1.5%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.2% +8.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 196,800 -.71%

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.4% +20.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -5.0% -1.0 percentage point
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $126.8M -26.5%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.54/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,845.0 -17.6%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,929.0/40 ft Box -2.7%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,244.8 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.5 -10.5%
  
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 56.1 +3.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 255,316 +.12%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,456,768 -10.1%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.3%
  

Worst Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Growth -.5%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +5.2%

• Airlines +3.3%
• Alt Energy +2.7%
  

• Utilities +2.5%
  

• Homebuilders +2.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Shipping -.8%
  

• AI/Robotics -1.3%
  

• Software -1.7%

• Road & Rail -1.7%
  

• Electric Vehicles -2.7%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)

• CELC, RH, HUT, ALT, SRRK, GH, TH, SA, VRNT, EL, INO, NVCR, FOXF, PRKS, MAG, DV, EXAS, CRNX, EHC, ARHS, EC, MHO, CENX, TECK, MARA, VERX, SPRY, PAAS, WBA, ETRN, EQT, LSEA and BIP
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• SNN, JEF, CXM, SHLS, MODV, CCL, GME, ATAT, CC, BRZE and MLKN
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (PVH)/3.53

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a -.2% decline in Jan.
• ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 48.6 versus 47.8 in Feb.
• ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 53.2 versus 52.5 in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update and the (JNPR) shareholders meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.7 +.7
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 73.1% of Issues Advancing, 25.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 +61.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$218.6M
  
• 301 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 65.3% (+1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 71.0 +5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.5 -.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.0 +.14%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,841.3 -.45%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 71.0 (Greed) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.2 -12.9%
  
• Vix 13.0 +1.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 -8.8%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.75 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 71.0 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.7 +1.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.1 -.11%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.4%

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Rotation, Short-Covering, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -3.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .38 +13.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.8 +1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.8 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.4 +1.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.6 +2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 -32.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 unch.

• NYSE Arms .92 -13.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$325.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.2 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 284.4 +.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 286 +2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.1 -1.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 188.2 -.25%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.4 +.04%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 169.2 -.41%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 117.6 +.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.3%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 785.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.7 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.8 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.7 +.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +47.7% +7.5 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.04 +.19:  Growth Rate +12.0% unch., P/E 20.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.64 +.29: Growth Rate +29.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 -.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.11 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.05 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.1% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 56.7% +.7 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 63.5%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 48.1%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -332 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +270 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/industrial/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -1.2% 2) Computer Hardware -1.0% 3) Internet -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DKNG, DNUT and GME
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CRBG 2) DJT 3) DKNG 4) GME 5) RDDT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GME 2) LUXH 3) COIN 4) NIO 5) SYRS
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) IBB 3) XLU 4) XLP 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume