BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Monday, March 30, 2026

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:41 PM

Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Growth -2.0%

Sector Underperformers:

1) AI/Innovation -4.5% 2) Semis -4.0% 3) Alt Energy -3.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

CAAP, GSAT, SMTC, ARLP, ASML, GE, FTDR, AMR, TSM, PLXS, CDE, ANAB, GAP, SCVL, NAVN, FLS, DXYZ, MTZ, RYAAY, ARM, MDA, BETA, AMSC, SYNA, OUST, ADEA, LEN, TMDX, IPI, MLKN, WBI, ALK, UMAC, NN, LITE, NN, GLW, BOOT, FPS, ELVN, DOCN, LUNR, SNDK, CORZ, KEP, CPS, MU, MANE, TSEM, KOD, BSX, VICR, ISSC, NBIS, FSLY, VIAV, PL, STRL, AGX, BTU, NXST, BE, MP, AXTI, SYY, AAOI, LASR, ALMS and VRDN,

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) RIG 2) INDA 3) WIX 4) PSKY 5) SVC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) FRMI 2) ARTL 3) NXST 4) IBRX 5) NMRA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) SMH 2) FTXO 3) XBI 4) XLF 5) GDX

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:11 PM

Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Insurance +2.0% 2) Software +1.1% 3) Pharma +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

SGML, UTHR, BBWI, CLMT, AGRO, AA, GRDN, IPX, INSM, BENX, VIST, WGS, PAM, COLD, OKTA, CDNL, YPF, BR, SSL, AZN, NMRK and EQNR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) JMIA 2) WIX 3) TTE 4) AFL 5) GTM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) FMCC 2) FNMA 3) AA 4) RZLV 5) UTHR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) FXN 2) XLE 3) XLI 4) PTF 5) VGT

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 1:52 PM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(FDS)/4.38
(MKC)/.60
(SNX)/3.31

After the Close:

(PLAY)/.39
(NKE)/.29
(PVH)/3.31
(RH)/2.20

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Dec.
The S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for Jan. is estimated to rise +.38% versus a +.47% gain in Dec.

9:45 am EST

The MNI Chicago PMI for March is estimated to fall to 54.2 versus 57.7 in Feb.

10:00 am EST

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March is estimated to fall to 87.9 versus 91.2 in Feb.
JOLTS Job Openings for Feb. is estimated to fall to 6890K versus 6946K in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, Texas Services Sector Outlook for March, (MKC) annual meeting, (RGLD) investor day, (HSY) investor day, (PWR) investor day and the (HOV) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 1:00 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -1.5% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.8 -.3
9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
62.2% of Issues Advancing, 35.9% Declining
TRIN/Arms .86 -25.9%
Non-Block Money Flow +$274.0M
87 New 52-Week Highs, 111 New Lows
44.4% (+3.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 36.9 -1.0

Polymarket:

How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 84.0% +52.0 percentage points
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% -1.0 percentage point
US forces enter Iran by April 30th 68.0% +5.0 percentage points
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 38.0% -21.0 percentage points

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 99.3 -1.0%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 567.0 +2.25 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 244.8 -.6%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 134.4 -1.4%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 10.0 (EXTREME FEAR) unch.
1-Day Vix 19.0 -44.7%
Vix 30.3 -2.3%
Total Put/Call 1.04 +5.1%

Sunday, March 29, 2026

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:45 PM

Around X:

@Business

Attacks in the Middle East conflict extended into a fifth week Sunday, with Israel striking Tehran and Saudi Arabia intercepting almost a dozen drones, a day after Yemen-based Houthi militants entered the war.
President Donald Trump said that Iran “gave” the US most of the 15 demands it sent to Tehran as a plan for an end to the war, even as it remains unclear whether either side is really negotiating. “They gave us most of the points. Why wouldn’t they?” he told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday.
Japan’s top currency official delivered his strongest warning yet to speculators, saying authorities may need to take bold action in the foreign exchange market if current conditions persist.
Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@Zerohedge

*TRUMP SAYS INDIRECT TALKS VIA EMISSARIES PROGRESSING WELL: FT. *TRUMP SAYS A DEAL COULD BE MADE 'FAIRLY QUICKLY': FT.
*LME ALUMINUM RISES 5% AFTER IRAN STRIKES MIDDLE EAST PLANTS.
*TRUMP SAYS COULD TAKE KHARG ISLAND 'VERY EASILY': FT. *TRUMP THINKS IRANS HAVE NO DEFENSE ON KHARG ISLAND: FT.
Wall Street Touts "Grind Lower" Trades For Stocks.
Manus’ CEO and chief scientist were summoned to a meeting with regulators in Beijing, and then told they couldn’t leave China: Financial Times. Meta agreed to buy the AI startup for a valuation of more than $2 billion last year.
Too Much Inflation, Too Little Growth: Goldman Strategists Warn Rates Are Fighting The Last War.
This Is What You Get When Commies Are Running NYC....
The White House is privately telling allies to expect that it will take time for the U.S. to reach a diplomatic deal with Iran: CBS reports citing two sources familiar with the situation.
U.S. will allow Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba, breaking blockade: NTY.
BREAKING: I have confirmation that the Israeli Air Force used soft-kill weapons to cut electricity in Tehran and Karaj. Fortunately, none of the power plants were bombed. According to my sources in the IDF, the Israeli Air Force used CBU-94/B “Blackout” cluster bombs equipped with BLU-114/B soft-kill submunitions to induce electrical short circuits at multiple power plants and transformer stations, including those in the Pirouzi district of eastern Tehran.
IRAN TO BEGIN BOMBING US-ISRAELI OFFICIALS/COMMANDERS’ HOMES IN REGION. (video)
A major explosion and fire at Valero’s Port Arthur refinery has taken one of the largest U.S. refining facilities offline, removing approximately 415,000 barrels per day from supply amid heightened market volatility. Our North American Refinery Intelligence Service has released a new report analysing the incident, using infrared monitoring across 12 key processing units at the site. Together, these units represent a significant share of PADD 3 refining capacity.
Top Goldman Trader Warns The Market Is "Increasingly Short Time"; Here's How To Trade It.
Iran Allowing 20 More Ships Through Strait Of Hormuz, Pakistan Says.
Beyond Muscle: New Research Shows Creatine Powers The Brain - Fast.
DHS Shutdown Now The Longest In US History.
BREAKING: Iranian security officials believe the US is planning an air assault operation on key southern airports Bandar Abbas, Kermanshah, Urmia, and Tabriz whilst coordinating with a militia ground invasion on North Western Iran according to the state run Tehran Times.
The uniparty in action. (graph)
Pentagon Eyes 'Weeks' Of Ground Operations In Iran As IRGC Threatens Tit-For-Tat Strikes On Universities.
Subprime Crisis 2.0: Will Private Credit Be The Trigger?
Trump Asks Congress To Pass Clean Reauthorization Of FISA Spy Powers.
Watch: Trump Arms Control Official Refuses To Confirm Israel Has Nukes.
Israeli Forces Raise Flag Over Syrian Town In Latest Raid: 'Provocative Act'.
Last week´s widening in XOVER left EU HY CDS at their widest levels since April last year. The gap vs general equity index looks....dangerous. (graph)

@CNBC

CNBC Daily Open: U.S. eyes ground operation as oil execs warn of price shock.
Trump reportedly warns to 'take the oil in Iran' as Tehran targets water, power plants in Kuwait.
Oil surges 3% as Iran war escalates with Yemen’s Houthis entering the Mideast conflict.
Asia-Pacific markets set to fall as Middle East war enters fifth week.
Stock futures slide ahead of a holiday-shortened trading week: Live updates.
Global week ahead: Why emergency G7 meetings are not working.

@MarioNawful

MAJOR UPDATE: The night hasn’t even ended and we have yet another major escalation which makes no sense! The U.S. and/or Israel just struck a major water source in Western Iran As we’ve seen in recent weeks, Iran has been retaliating reciprocally. This means that Iran will likely retaliate by striking a lifeline for the Gulf: Their desalination plants!
Iranian strikes hit UAE's biggest aluminium smelter: EGA's Al Taweelah in Abu Dhabi takes major damage This happens after Israel attacked Iran's steel manufacturers, the 2 biggest ones, Mobarakeh Steel in Isfahan, central Iran, and Khuzestan Steel, in the southwest. This made Iran retaliate accordingly. Seems like every time Israel attacks, it's the Gulf that suffers.
Insane footage: The Revolutionary Guard's fuel depot is on fire in Tehran tonight. The organization running Iran's military just watched its own capital's fuel supply burn.
The Pentagon is planning weeks of ground operations while the White House says the war is almost over... Trump: "I'm not putting troops anywhere." Rubio: "We can achieve all objectives without ground troops." Meanwhile, the Pentagon is war-gaming raids on Kharg Island and coastal weapons sites that officials say would take "weeks, not months." One source even said "a couple of months." 62% of Americans strongly oppose ground troops in Iran. Republican congressmen who are Navy SEALs are saying no. And Lindsey Graham compared seizing Kharg to Iwo Jima, a battle that killed 6,800 Marines. The most honest quote came from a former defense official: "Seizing it is not difficult. Protecting your guys once they are there is." Every expert says the same thing. You can take the islands. You just can't hold them without becoming a target practice range for Iranian drones and missiles. And 62% of the country doesn't even want you to try.
The U.S. sanctions waiver just handed Iran nearly double its entire yearly defense budget... The math is devastating. Trump's waiver unlocked roughly 170 million barrels of Iranian crude worth an estimated $14 billion. Iran's entire 2024 military budget was $7.9 billion. One policy decision gave Tehran almost twice that in a single stroke. At $20,000 per Shahed drone, that money theoretically buys 700,000 of them. The daily numbers are just as absurd.
The sky turned blood red across Western Australia as Tropical Cyclone Narelle pushed dust through the air. Between the meteors and now this, 2026 is giving very biblical vibes and we're only in March... (video)

@wideawake_media

Tucker Carlson warns that a failure to deliver justice in the Epstein case could spark "a revolution". "How can you say that thousands of children were r*ped, but I'm not going to find out who r*ped them?" "Where are the r*pists? Why aren't they in jail?" "I just think it's very dangerous to play around with this stuff." "I don't want a revolution. But if you wanted a revolution, this is how you would act." (video)

@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC says they will target two Israeli or US universities in the region in retaliation for the attack on Iran’s University of Science and Technology in Tehran.

@TheSCIF

Obama-era money laundering operation was funneled through Cayman Island accounts, using USAID as a front disguised as foreign aid, lining their own pockets and funding regime change operations. In Cuba, rogue Obama-era USAID ops injected $1.2 billion into activist groups, training them on Facebook, Twitter, hashtags, and street protests. It was all designed to fool Americans, Congress, and even the White House. Obama secretly funded Zunzuneo, a fake Cuban Twitter clone (hummingbird) built to look local. It started with harmless sports and weather posts, then flipped to political propaganda, organizing dissent and fueling mass protests. Funds were routed through Cayman accounts falsely labeled "Pakistani aid" for digital psyops and uprisings. Decades of operations disguised as "aid" robbing YOU and America blind while you were paying for the same propaganda that was deployed against you.
Geoengineering is real and one major group behind it is DARPA and other rogue factions within our own government. We are being poisoned from above. None of this is normal and it MUST be stopped. Our soil and our bodies are engulfed with heavy metals. It's time to end this. (video)

@WallStreetApes

This is the new robotic security “dog” patrolling Atlanta Georgia. They are patrolling apartment complexes, parking lots and construction sites Some people find these very eerie and dystopian The company is working towards getting a government contract with law enforcement. (video)

@A_M_R_M1

Breaking: Israel announces that it has begun striking energy facilities in Iran.

@ShadowofEzra

Ted Cruz has now been labeled an antisemite by No Kings protest organizer Leah Greenberg after he claimed the protest was being funded by George Soros. According to Greenberg, blaming George Soros for funding the protest makes someone an automatic antisemite. Cruz has spent his career opposing antisemitism, and now he’s been called an antisemite. (video)

@EthanLevins2

American Marines are being told to prepare for combat. “Prepare your family”. (pic)

@EricLDaugh

HOLY CRAP!! A Palm Beach elections office volunteer just got arrested for STEALING an encrypted access key and computer equipment in the March 24 special election where the Democrat won by 800 votes. This is the district the includes Mar-a-Lago. Investigators worry that the encryption — used for training — could be reverse engineered and used to tamper with voter registration.
HOLY CRAP! Rep. Tim Burchett just called on Senate Republicans to REMOVE Leader John Thune and get new leadership. "They need to get some new leadership over there, in my opinion!" "[Thune] made a huge mistake! 83% of the population supports President Trump's SAVE America Act, which they should. He IGNORES that." "They passed that thing at 2:25 in the morning and left all the other senators kind of hanging! All he had to do was have five of his cronies on the floor. He cuts a deal with SCHUMER." (video)

@Osint613

BREAKING: Police report multiple victims after a male drove his vehicle into pedestrians at Derby City centre in Derbyshire, UK. The Telegraph is claiming that there are at least 20 victims. Video by Derby Paul. (video)

@FinanceLancelot

BREAKING: Iran is firing hypersonic missiles at Dubai international airport, United Arab Emirates.

@MegynKellyShow

WATCH: Megyn sounds the alarm about the possibility of sending ground troops to Iran: "We cannot send troops into Iran and ever win a Republican election again for next 10-20 years... Everything he built, the entire coalition we were all a part of, will be ruined." (video)

@Osinttechnical

Massive Iranian drone attack ongoing in northern Iraq this evening, with numerous impacts reported around the city of Erbil. (video)

@mattvanswol

This is footage of the "NO KINGS" protest in Black Mountain NC... Nearly EVERY SINGLE PERSON at this protest is White and over the age of 65. You cannot make this up!!!!!! (video)

@chrismartenson

In case you haven't heard, the US and NATO are saying diddly squat about Ukraine's recent targeting of Russian oil and fertilizer facilities. That means they support fuel shortages and future food shortages. I wonder why? (video)

@RealBrittHughes

Six horrific crimes. Six illegal aliens. Zero national outrage. Here are the stories the anti-ICE media didn’t tell you this week. (video)

@Gaurab

200 helium containers are stranded in the Persian Gulf right now. Each one holds 41,000 liters cooled to -269°C. The containers have no refrigeration. No compressor, no cooling loop. Insulation is all that stands between the cargo and ambient heat, and it buys 35 to 48 days. After that, the liquid boils, the pressure valve opens, and the helium vents to atmosphere. Re-liquefying it requires a specialized plant. Most ports do not have one. Qatar's North Field supplied 33% of the world's helium as a byproduct of cryogenic separation at its LNG plants. On March 2, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Spot prices surged 70 to 100 percent. EUV lithography requires 99.9999% purity helium for wafer cooling and no current substitute exists. The fifth helium shortage since 2006 has just begun.

@BRICSinfo

JUST IN: Video shows the aftermath of an Iranian drone attack at Kuwait's international airport. (video)
JUST IN: Yemeni Houthis say they are considering closing Bab El Mandeb Strait. 12% of the world's trade passes through it.

@pepesgrandma

No Kings is a Soros sponsored, ex military and intelligence operation. In honor of No Kings day, I am resharing the org that started it all. An org with FOUR EX CIA agents. This will eventually link to Data Republicans work. And there’s a much bigger story in store on them too.

@mitchellvii

ZERO INDICTMENTS! - Back in April of 2025, Trump gave Pam Bondi six months to investigate #ActBlue. That six months came and went, and we don't have anything on #ActBlue. And now we're learning about Ukraine laundering hundreds of millions back to the Democrats.

@shanaka86

BREAKING: An Iranian ballistic missile guided by Chinese BeiDou satellites, fuelled by Chinese sodium perchlorate, precisely navigated by Chinese gyroscopic sensors, and fabricated on production lines equipped with Chinese SMIC tools just struck the Neot Hovav industrial zone south of Beersheba. Israel’s largest chemical and hazardous waste complex. Nineteen plants. Adama. Teva Pharmaceutical. Israel Chemicals. A warehouse is burning. Route 40 closed. No injuries. No hazmat release. Fire contained. Four countries built that missile. One country appears at every layer of the supply chain. The same country that processes 85 to 90 percent of the rare earth magnets inside the Arrow interceptor that was fired to stop it.

@TFTC21

The World Uncertainty Index just hit 105,000, the highest level in recorded history. Higher than Covid. Higher than 9/11. Higher than the Iraq War and the Global Financial Crisis combined.

@rawsalerts

Sony has announced that it is suspending fulfillment of orders across nearly its entire SD and CFexpress memory card lineup, citing the ongoing global semiconductor (memory) shortage along with additional supply chain constraints.

@JimFergusonUK

THIS IS THE DOMINO EFFECT MOST PEOPLE MISS. It doesn’t start with empty shelves. It starts here. Fuel stops. Trucks stop. Movement stops. And once transport freezes… Everything behind it stacks up fast: • Food. • Medicine. • Materials. • Fuel itself. Supply chains don’t break slowly. They look fine… until suddenly they’re not. Australia is the warning. The question is: Who’s next? Watch this closely.

@amuse

OH CANADA: 97.5% of Canadians have refused to comply with the government’s order to turn over their banned firearms. Soon authorities will go door to door to seize the weapons in their effort to disarm the nation’s citizenry. (video)

@ShaykhSulaiman

JUST IN: IRGC WARN EVERYONE TO LEAVE AMERICAN INSTITUTES IN MIDDLE EAST AS THERE WILL BE RETALIATION. Targets:

@MazeLove14

Wow! I just checked to see what other states have this or similar “Dark Skies Protection” legislation passed and/or introduced. Here is what I found: States with statewide dark sky laws: Arizona. Arkansas. California. Colorado. Connecticut. Hawaii. Maine. Minnesota. Missouri. New Hampshire. New Mexico. New York. Oklahoma. Rhode Island. Texas. Vermont. Virginia. Wyoming. States introducing new or stricter laws now: Hawaii. Illinois. Massachusetts. New York. New Jersey. Pennsylvania. Michigan. Virginia. Maine.

@OCOCReport

WAR ON FOOD. USA gives coordinates and Ukrainian drone strikes hit major fertilizer facilities in Russia: • Dorogobuzh plant (Smolensk) – shut down after deadly attack. • Apatit plant (Cherepovets) – major phosphate producer hit. • Kirovo-Chepetsk chemical plant – another key facility targeted. At the same time: • Russia restricts fertilizer exports. • China cuts exports. • Middle East conflict blocks up to 30%+ of global supply. Prices are rising. Supply is shrinking. This doesn’t just hit farmers—this hits food prices worldwide. Are we watching the start of a global food crisis?

@DropSiteNews

Iran’s attack on Prince Sultan Air Base destroyed a U.S. command aircraft that will cost $1B+ to replace — and possibly destroyed three Stratotankers costing $80 million each. New images show a destroyed Boeing E-3 Sentry at the base in Saudi Arabia, with the fuselage torn open and burned out—damage likely consistent with a total loss. (pic)

@HealthRanger

The world is about to experience the most dramatic and catastrophic helium shortage in history. My lab equipment (mass-spec) uses helium. We stocked up weeks ago, but it won't last forever. Microchip lithography fabs require helium, too. No helium means no more GPUs will be manufactured. No AI chips for Teslas. No high-bandwidth memory chips.

@EvanLuthra

WHAT META JUST DROPPED IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN ANYTHING OPENAI HAS EVER BUILT!!!!! while everyone was losing their mind over Claude Mythos.. Meta dropped something that nobody noticed.. they built an AI called TRIBE v2.. it's basically a digital copy of your brain.. you show it a video, a sound, a sentence.. and it already knows how your brain is going to react.. 70,000 different parts of your brain.. blood flow, oxygen, everything.. they trained it on 1,000 hours of brain scans from 700 real people lying inside MRI machines.. it doesn't read your thoughts.. it does something worse.. it knows what's going to make you feel something before you even feel it.. think about that for a second.. (video)

@Fxhedgers

JET FUEL SPIKES AS AIRLINES WARN SUPPLIES COULD RUN DRY WITHIN WEEKS. Jet fuel prices in the U.S. have more than doubled in a matter of weeks as Middle East tensions squeeze supply, fueling concerns airlines could run short of fuel.

Night Trading

Asian indices are -2.75% to -1.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.0 +3.5 basis points.
China Sovereign CDS 54.75 +2.0 basis points.
China Iron Ore Spot 106.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
Crude Oil 102.9/bbl. +3.3%
Gold 4,497.7 USD/t oz. -.6%
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.67 -.21%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.27 -.08%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.1 -1.4%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.40% -2.0 basis points.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.75% +3.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.7 +.7%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.3%.
S&P 500 futures -.44%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.52%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by transport and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the week.

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:39 PM