Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) I-Banking +.4% 2) Energy +.4% 3) Defense +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WLTH, SWKS, AVAV, PLSE, QRVO, TYRA, VIST, CRESY, OBE, FTH, ASO, SWMR, XP, PAYP, CVI, MNDY, SITM, FOUR, YPF, TRMK, LFST, SEDG and STNE 

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IMPP 2) PRMW 3) AVAV 4) PCT 5) IEF 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WLTH 2) CMRC 3) DBI 4) AVAV 5) ASO

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLF 3) XLE 4) IYW 5) KRE

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (KR)/1.06

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in July.
• Core CPI MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in July. 
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Aug. 

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to 51.0 versus 51.7 in Aug.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to +4.2% versus a prior estimate of a +4.0% gain in Aug. 

12:00 pm EST

• Household Change in Net Worth for 2Q. 

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Budget Deficit for Aug. is estimated to fall to -$220.0B versus -$344.8B in July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The IEA Monthly report, WASDE report, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning report, Jefferies Renewables/Clean Energy/Construction Conference and the HC Wainwright Investment Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.3 +1.4
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 26.3% of Issues Advancing, 71.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .54 -50.5%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$197.M
  
• 45 New 52-Week Highs, 333 New Lows
• 51.6% (-3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.3 -4.5

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 8.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30th 2.0% unch.
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 3.0% unch.
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30th 1.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 16.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30th 14.0% -1.0 percentage point

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 130.7 +.8%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 79.0 +9.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 443.2 -2.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 269.0 -.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 146.7 -.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 36.0 (FEAR) -4.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.1 +15.1%
• Vix 17.6% +7.1%
• Total Put/Call .83 +2.5%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 unch. 
• China Sovereign CDS 34.75 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
• Crude Oil 96.54/bbl. +.5% 
• Gold 4,446.20 USD/t oz. -.33%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.28 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.29 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 130.1 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.84% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.0% +4.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.11%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Escalating Mideast War Tensions, Mideast War-Induced Inflation Fears, Rising Long-Term Rates, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 +.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.1 -.4% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .31 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.13 +2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.7 +1.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 137.7 +.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 53.1 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 +.4
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.5 +2.8

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.6 -.4

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 76.1 -3.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +53.2% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 400.26 +.70:  Growth Rate +22.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.1 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.31% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +131.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 976.02 +1.42: Growth Rate +45.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.0 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.23 -1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 40.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 185.4 +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 79.1 euros/megawatt-hour +4.3%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 11.2 -.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.84% +5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 54.3% (-.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 39.6%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -970 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -85 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -1 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/energy sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Space -2.3% 2) Alt Energy -2.1% 3) Construction -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PCG, PAX, IRT, XP, KMB, DYN, BKNG, AVAV, CNM, INGM, TH, LIFE, KSPI, SFD, PINS, BKV, BNED, ORA, CHWY, XE, CASY, EVMN, TYRA, 

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) QQQM 2) CMCSA 3) IBRX 4) CHWY 5) AEO

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NNOX 2) CASY 3) TYRA 4) TBBK 5) CMCSA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) GDX 3) IGV 4) XLE 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume