Friday, February 20, 2004

Friday Close

S&P 500 1,144.11-.26%
NASDAQ 2,037.93-.39%


Leading Sectors
Food+.17%
Tobacco+.11%
Oil Service+.05%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders-1.66%
Iron/Steel-2.00%
Networking-2.01%

Other
Crude Oil 34.26-1.10%
Natural Gas 5.19-.80%
Gold 398.00-3.00%
Base Metals 112.02-.8%
U.S. Dollar 87.15+1.5%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.09%+1.53%
VIX 16.04+1.52%
Put/Call .86+28.4%
NYSE Arms 1.49+53.6%

After-hours Movers
None of Note

After-hours News
The U.S. markets ended down modestly after a late-day surge on positive comments from members of the Federal Reserve. This surge came on the heels of an intense mid-day sell-off on inflation fears. Later in the afternoon, Alan Greenspan said outsourcing hasn't hurt the U.S. economy and he sees employment rising "more quickly" before long. He also said protectionism won't save jobs and that demand is declining for low-skilled labor. The Fed's Bernanke said high energy costs will eventually hurt GDP growth if they persist and that hiring will strengthen this year on substantial U.S. growth and low inflation. Texas became the 4th state to report a case of bird flu this month. CNBC says the current unemployment rate of 5.6% is lower than the avg. unemployment rate for any 10-yr. period during the last three decades. CNBC also said that the NASDAQ is up 95% in the last 15 months, the 4th best cyclical move on record. Rumors are flying that Ralph Nadar will make an announcement soon that he plans to run for President.

BOTTOM LINE: I covered a few profitable shorts during the late afternoon rally, taking the Portfolio's market exposure back to market neutral. The volatility caused by option expiration likely masked underlying weakness that will resurface sometime next week. My short-term indicators continue to give a sell signal for the NASDAQ and are close to giving a sell for the S&P 500, as well. Thus, I will keep the Portfolio's market exposure close to market neutral, as I expect a continuation of the recent weakness in the short-term.

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