Tuesday, February 24, 2004

Tuesday Close

S&P 500 1,139.09 -.17%
NASDAQ 2,005 -.10%


Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.84%
Telecom +.96%
Homebuilders +.73%

Lagging Sectors
I-Banking -1.25%
Broadband -1.50%
Fashion -1.51%

Other
Crude Oil 34.58 unch.
Natural Gas 5.10 +.57%
Gold 404.40 -.10%
Base Metals 111.36 +1.09%
U.S. Dollar 86.15 -.87%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.02% -.29%
VIX 15.90 -2.39%
Put/Call .76 +24.59%
NYSE Arms 1.43 +17.21%

After-hours Movers
SMTC +4.21% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q guidance. Also, announced $50M stock buyback plan.
RMBS +7.4% after Judge Stephen McGuire released the public version of his initial decision in the Rambus antitrust case.
IM +12.4% after world's biggest computer distributor significantly beat 4Q earnings/sales estimates and raised 1Q guidance substantially.
APSG -3.74% after slightly missing 1Q estimates.
EPIQ -8.7% after missing 4Q estimates by .03.
DMRC -4.89% after missing 4Q estimates and raising 04 guidance.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks fell modestly, pushing the S&P 500 and DJIA down for a 5th straight day, the longest losing streak since January 03. A larger-than-expected fall in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index was the likely catalyst. After the close, Henry Herrmann, CIO at Waddell & Reed, told CNBC he expects the economy to begin adding 150,000-250,000 jobs/month very soon. The CEO of Nautilus said he expects earnings to grow 15% the next 2 years, 3 times the market's growth, as health clubs update their equipment and baby boomers purchase it for their homes. The U.S. Senate voted to block a bill supported by health-care providers that would limit medical malpractice awards in the delivery of babies. Goldman continues to be positive on cell-tower stocks, saying that the perception of the damage done by consolidation is worse than reality and that AMT should rise over 20% during the next 12 months. The latest weekly survey by the Intl. Council of Shopping Centers says chain-store sales were up 8.3% vs. a year ago. Moreover, ShopperTrak said retail sales for the month of February are poised to rise 20.3%.

BOTTOM LINE: February's exceptionally strong retail numbers confirm my suspicion that the recent fall in Consumer Confidence is a result of politics and the mainstream media's constant focus on the jobs reports. These are short-term problems in my opinion. I took a position in AMAT near the close today and will use a close below $21 as my stop. The Portfolio's net long exposure is now 25%. The NASDAQ made a stand today at 2000 and should rise tomorrow on the Ingram Micro report. I will look to add selective longs on the open.

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