Thursday, February 12, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,152.11-.49%
NASDAQ 2,073.61-.77%

Leading Sectors
Airlines+2.42%
HMO's+1.71%
Oil Service+1.19%

Lagging Sectors
Networking-1.10%
Drugs-1.26%
Semis-1.52%

Other
Crude Oil 34.14+.47%
Put/Call Ratio .54-19.4%
Base Metals 109.82+2.56%
Lumber 384.70+1.91%
Coal 46.5+3.33%

After-hours Movers
IMCL+32.1% on FDA approval of cancer drug Erbitux and a rebound from a pre-halt plunge due to speculation the drug would not be approved. The SEC is investigating the pre-halt trading.
DELL+1.6% on slightly better-than-expected 4th Q earnings and no change in 1st Q guidance.
NVDA-6.7% on 4th Q earnings miss and lowered 1st Q guidance.
ADI+4.55% on better-than-expected 1st Q earnings and raised 2nd Q guidance.
PHS+7.08% on better-than-expected 4th Q earnings and raised 04 guidance.
AEIS+10.3% on significantly better than expected 4th Quarter earnings and raised 1st Q guidance.
MTLG+9.2% on better-than-expected 4th Q earnings and raised 1st Q guidance.
TASR-5.2% down on profit-taking after huge short-squeeze.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks declined for the first day in three as the number of Americans filing jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week. The technology sector saw the most profit-taking ahead of Dell's earnings report after the close. Commodity related stocks were very strong again today on increasing prices resulting from insatiable Chinese demand. SBC and Bellsouth are likely to raise AT&T wireless bid. FCC ruled a computer-to-computer calling service isn't subject to traditional telephone rules, signaling it will take a hands-off approach to other internet-phone services as it begins a regulatory review of the VOIP industry. The market for VOIP technology is expected to rise to $15.1B by 07 from $3.3B today, according to researcher IDC. Business Week is positive on Chinadotcom(CHINA) in its Inside Wall Street column. Analyst Jon Rogers of Wachovia is positive on American Axle(AXL) in Business Week.

BOTTOM LINE: Dell's earnings, while not great, did not disappoint muted expectations. Several other stellar reports after the close and the approval of Imclone's Erbitux should provide enough fuel for the bulls to have a decent day tomorrow. I shifted a few positions around on the close, cutting the Portfolio's market exposure down to 80% net long. While the Portfolio did give up some recent gains today, it wasn't too bad. The fall in the Put/Call ratio is concerning, as it shows trader complacency. As well, my short-term trading indicators are close to giving a sell-signal, thus I will closely monitor tomorrow's open to make a decision on further hedging.

No comments: