Friday, February 27, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,147.89 +.26%
NASDAQ 2,030.70 -.07%


Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.37%
Iron/Steel +2.11%
HMO's +1.28%

Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -.25%
Airlines -.68%
Semis -1.50%

Other
Crude Oil 36.10 +1.66%
Natural Gas 5.46 +1.28%
Gold 396.80 +.33%
Base Metals 113.05 +.13%
U.S. Dollar 87.39 -.32%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.98% -1.28%
VIX 14.36 -3.17%
Put/Call .84 +33.33%
NYSE Arms 1.10 +25%

Market Movers
SPW -19.8% on 4Q estimate miss, weak outlook and multiple downgrades.
DNA +5.2% on U.S. approval to sell its Avastin colon-cancer drug.
ILXO +16.7% on takeover by Genzyme, GENZ -5.4%.
MRVL +5.1% on strong 4Q, raised 1Q guidance and 2-for-1 split announcement.
RDY -13.0% after the Indian drugmaker was barred by a U.S. appeals court from selling a version of Pfizer's hypertension drug Norvasc.
PDE -13.1% after weak 4Q and downgrade by Merrill.
ADSK +9.3% after significantly beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q guidance significantly, multiple upgrades.

Economic Data
Revised GDP was 4.1% vs. expectations of 3.8%.
Revised Personal Consumption was 2.7% vs. expectations of 2.6%.
Revised GDP Price Deflator was 1.2% vs. expectations of 1.1%.
Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for Feb. was 94.4, ahead of the 94.0 estimate.
Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for Feb. was 63.6 vs. 63.5 estimates.

Recommendations
Goldman positive on MRVL, raising estimates and reiterating outperform. GS reiterates Outperform on SNDK after Analyst Day. Citi Smith Barney positive on BRCM and MRVL.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed this afternoon, as technology shares' weakness is offset by broad strength in the rest of the market. The Supreme Court will discuss whether to take a case by the Department of Justice questioning the legality of certain Class II slot machines, with a decision expected to be published on Monday, March 1. If the S.C. decides to take the case, it may potentially take away one of the slot makers growth opportunities, according to Goldman Sachs. Autodesk(ADSK) CEO said on CNBC that customer demand is very strong. Iraq plans to boost crude-oil exports to pre-war levels of 2.2 million barrels a day by late March or early April. The U.S. dollar will continue to weaken through year-end according to traders and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index held close to its highest level in almost 10 years. As well, a measure of employment showed more companies are adding jobs in the area. The judge in the Martha Stewart trial dismissed a securities fraud charge, the most serious offense in the indictment.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is about even on the day. I haven't made any trades yet. Market exposure equals 75% net long. I will likely sell a few of my tech positions and rotate into a more consumer cyclicals, keeping market exposure at 75% net long.

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