Wednesday, May 05, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,121.16 +.14%
NASDAQ 1,958.89 +.43%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.72%
Wireless +1.53%
HMO's +1.49%

Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -.34%
Papers -1.05%
Oil Service -2.94%

Other
Crude Oil 39.50 +1.21%
Natural Gas 6.24 -.46%
Gold 392.50 +.18%
Base Metals 105.20 +.18%
U.S. Dollar 89.30 -.57%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.55% -.22%
VIX 16.16 -2.36%
Put/Call .94 +42.42%
NYSE Arms .74 -6.33%

Market Movers
WWCA +15.0% after substantially beating 1Q estimates.
LGND -17.2% after missing 1Q estimate and lowering 04 forecast.
CF +22.0% after acquisition by Royal Bank of Scotland for $10.5B.
IPXL +19.33% after substantially beating 1Q estimates.
GIVN + 9.93% on rebound from yesterday's decline after reporting 1Q results.
DIGE +8.2% after saying United Healthcare will reimburse doctors or patients for its DNAwithPap test to detect cervical cancer.
ZIXI -15.5% after missing 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q guidance.
OTEX -9.44% after beating 3Q estimate, widening 4Q guidance and reaffirming 04 forecast.
Oil Service stocks down across the board on Bank of America downgrade.

Economic Data
ISM Non-Manufacturing for April 68.4 versus expectations of 65.0 and 65.8 in March.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BBY, TYC and DDR. Citi SmithBarney said to Buy Metal stocks on weakness, favorites are AA, FCX and NEM. Citi also says to Buy selected auto parts and equipment stocks on weakness, BWA, AXL and MGA. Citi reiterated Buy on TYC, target $35. Citi reiterated Buy on AMGN, target $90. Deutsche Bank raised FON to Buy. GLG raised to Buy at UBS, target $20.25. ICOS rated Underperform at Thomas Weisel. BK raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley. KEY cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley. BWS raised to Buy at Merrill, target $44. DELL raised to Buy at Bank of America, target $40. MWD raised to Overweight at Prudential, target $63. HNT cut to Underweight at Prudential. CA rated Buy at Bank of America, target $36.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mostly higher mid-day on an all-time record high reading from the ISM Non-manufacturing index and stable interest rates. The average 2003 U.S. vehicle weighs 4,021 pounds, the heaviest since the mid-70's, the New York Times said, citing an Environmental Protection Agency report. An East Texas man was sentenced to 11 years in federal prison for possessing a sodium cyanide bomb capable of killing everyone inside a basketball arena, the LA Times reported. Royal Bank of Scotland CEO Fred Goodwin said he plans more U.S. takeovers as opportunities for growth in the UK diminish. Ford boosted incentives on three sport-utility vehicles and a minivan after sales for the models declined last month. The Institute for Supply Management's index of financial services, construction, retail and other non-manufacturing enterprises that make up the largest share of the economy climbed to 68.4 in April, an all-time record high. The employment component of the index reached its highest reading since the stock market bubble burst in 2000.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is up today as my healthcare longs are rising and my tech and retail shorts are falling. I added a new biotech long and a new tech short this morning, leaving the Portfolio with market neutral exposure. With investor complacency readings relatively high, a continuing rise in crude oil prices and poor volume/breadth readings, I will likely keep the Portfolio close to market neutral heading into Friday's important employment report.

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