Monday, May 03, 2004

Monday Close

S&P 500 1,117.56 +.93%
NASDAQ 1,938.72 +.97%


Leading Sectors
Energy +2.55%
Gaming +2.55%
Airlines +2.28%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -.26%
Semis -.59%
Iron/Steel -1.43%

Other
Crude Oil 38.18 -.08%
Natural Gas 6.23 -.02%
Gold 387.80 +.08%
Base Metals 104.19 +.72%
U.S. Dollar 90.77 +.32%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.50% -.09%
VIX 16.62 -3.32%
Put/Call .81 -14.74%
NYSE Arms .81 -53.45%

After-hours Movers
MVSN +12.19% after substantially beating 1Q estimate and raising 2Q/04 guidance.
PHRM +5.14% after beating 1Q estimate and raising 04 forecast.
GPRO +4.87% after substantially beating 1Q estimate and raising 04 forecast.
CEPH -4.89% after meeting 1Q estimate and lowering 2Q guidance.
PCLN -3.5% after beating 1Q estimate and announcing acquisition.

Recommendations
Jim Cramer, of TheStreet.com, thinks cyclicals will rally on the Fed rate hike. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on KO, PEP and STZ. GS reiterated Underperform on SGP and FHCC.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher Monday as strength in energy, gaming and airline stocks offset continued weakness in technology shares. After the close, the Semiconductor Industry Association said it will soon hike its forecast for 04 chip growth to over 20%, TheStreet.com reported. Thomas Siebel will step down as chief executive of Siebel Systems, CNBC reported. UK business optimism and output are at their highest in almost 10 years, the London-based Times said. Global air traffic rose 10% in the first-quarter of 2004 compared with year-earlier figures, beating expectations, the BBC reported. The U.S. government cut its planned borrowing to a net $38 billion from April through June, half the amount it initially forecast, as strong economic growth has resulted in rising tax revenues, Bloomberg reported. The IEA said in a study that higher oil prices are reducing U.S. economic growth by about .3%, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio fell slightly today and I added a few health care service longs in the afternoon, bringing market exposure back to 25% net short. Volume and breadth were weak today. As well, investor complacency remains relatively high. Thus, I believe today's rally was likely an oversold technical bounce and that selling will resurface later in the week.

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